A cold front will push through the region on Monday night, leading to cooler weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by more warmth, especially on Friday.

If it doesn’t rain through Halloween, the region’s dry streak would reach two weeks. Every day beyond two weeks becomes more statistically uncommon around here. Dry stretches as long as this one don’t come around too often!

A storm system could gather to the west of the region next weekend, although the chances for rain on Saturday and/or Sunday don’t look high enough to mention in the forecast at this point.

Also, right now, Halloween is looking comfortably warm.

Looking ahead to early November, there are signs of more mild weather, though rain chances are expected to increase. That’s because of an active jet stream pattern from El Niño.

That’s another reason to enjoy the current calm conditions — because they won’t last.

I’m expecting quite a stormy winter across the region, which you can read all about in my winter outlook, which was just released yesterday.

I’ll keep this update short and charge my batteries for the busy season ahead ✌️

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Some 4,000 miles away from our region, in the east-central equatorial Pacific, ocean temperatures are around 15°F above average in spots. That represents a huge warming in the ocean, which requires much more energy to heat up than the land.

That’s going to leave a mark, because what happens in that part of the Pacific doesn’t stay in the Pacific — it affects weather patterns worldwide.

Thunderstorm activity transfers the heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, changing the jet streams which guide storms around the planet.

Here’s what this mega anomaly looks like from the perspectives of satellites, buoys, and floats, which measure ocean temperatures.

I expect that this remote red stripe in the ocean will leave its fingerprints all over the Hudson Valley’s weather into 2027, affecting chances for rain, snow, and cold temperatures — starting with a transition to stormier weather in November.

Come be an atmospheric detective with me and learn much more! 🕵️‍♂️

But first, new merch!

This year’s theme is simple but bold:

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The best snow day forecast doesn’t come from a machine — yet!

Check it out, and grab some here if you want: https://bennollstore.com/collections/not-ai-weather-bennollweather.

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The week ahead will have a splendid start in the Hudson Valley. Cooler weekend weather will give way to pleasantly warm conditions with plentiful sunshine.

But will it stay that way?

A storm brewing off the North Carolina coast is set to spin just offshore for days. It isn’t expected to directly hit the Hudson Valley this week, but its outermost rain bands could graze the region from late Wednesday into Thursday. However, if those bands miss, we could be looking at a quite an extended dry spell.

After that, the offshore storm will be pushed away by another strong area of high pressure, bringing yet more sunshine — that’s expected to last into the week of October 26.

You won’t want to miss weekend’s update. On Saturday, October 24, I’ll be releasing my winter outlook to premium subscribers!

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Have a great week!

But once they clear on Monday, a rather warm stretch of mid-October weather will follow.

This warmth is connected to the remnants of another tropical storm, named Rachel, racing through the deserts of Southern California and Nevada. As the Hudson Valley gets rain on Sunday, so will the country’s driest place: Death Valley, California. There could be considerable flooding in parts of the West.

This large, slow-moving western disturbance will help to blow warm air into the East to start the week.

But by Saturday, the Hudson Valley may feel its first true Arctic air mass of the season, and there could even be some flurries near the Great Lakes.

In other words, hold on for the ride!

You can watch this big temperature switcheroo play out in the animation below.

Is this impending cold blast a sign of things to come this winter? My Hudson Valley winter outlook is taking shape and will be released to premium subscribers on Saturday, October 24. Click the button below to receive it.

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The week ahead

The weather this week won’t exactly be of the award-winning variety that defined last week, but it won’t be too bad either. A cool down late in the week could be a shock to the system.

Monday: warmer with clouds giving way to sun

Tuesday: remaining toasty for the time of year; a warm night

Wednesday: warmer than average again; chance for a passing shower

Thursday: cooler, sunny

Friday: strong cold front approaches with rain and wind

Saturday-Sunday: much cooler and windy! November-like 📉

Looking ahead to the week of October 19, temperatures should rebound pretty quickly back into the 60s and perhaps 70s. It currently looks drier than normal.

Testing 1, 2, 3…

My Hudson Valley forecasts are and have always been hand-crafted. Every week, I synthesize huge amounts of data and deliver it as consumable morsels in this letter.

But by Wednesday or Thursday, the forecast that I sent on Sunday morning is at risk of becoming stale.

So I set up an automated seven day forecast for the Hudson Valley that updates every six hours! You can check it out here.

It uses data from the most accurate global weather model on the market now, called the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System from ECMWF.

I consider this model when I make my forecasts and tend to weight it heavily, but now you can feel free to track it yourself throughout the week.

The hurricane drought in the Atlantic Ocean ended on Wednesday night when Isaias intensified into a hurricane — the first in about 342 days.

This storm will make landfall in the western part of the Florida Panhandle or coastal Alabama on Friday night, where significant storm surge and flooding is expected — likely becoming the first U.S. hurricane landfall in two years.

Unfortunately, the storm will push well inland toward the Hudson Valley, probably putting a damper on your Sunday plans.

There’s some uncertainty as to exactly when the rain will arrive on Sunday. It might be dry for at least part of the morning, but it looks like it will turn into a washout during the afternoon, with rain continuing overnight.

The storm will be a fast mover and conditions should clear out on Monday.

Meanwhile, the remnants of another hurricane will hit Southern California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah on Sunday in what will be a wild weather weekend for the country.

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Here’s an excerpt from my story in Thursday’s Washington Post:

If it doesn’t rain in the Hudson Valley on Sunday afternoon and the entire week ends up being dry, then the region will reach a 13-day dry streak — the longest in over a year, since September 2025.

Not too shabby, especially considering that many days this week will feature plenty of sunshine and low humidity.

That’s why I’m calling it the nicest forecast of the year, a description that I don’t use lightly!

The main weather storyline involves a cold front on Monday, whose brisk winds will usher an air mass from Canada. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s for the first time since May early Tuesday and Wednesday.

My advice? Enjoy the dry weather and sunshine while it’s around. At some point in the months ahead, probably during November, a shift toward stormier conditions is expected. I’ll tell that story in my winter outlook, which I expect to release to premium subscribers on Saturday, October 24. Click the button below to receive it!

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The week ahead

There will be plenty of sunshine and dry weather this week, but wind too.

Monday: it will be sunny, but turn windy as a cold front sweeps through

Tuesday: a cool morning; hardly a cloud in the sky

Wednesday: another chilly morning followed by a warmer, breezy afternoon

Thursday: warming up some more; breezy

Friday: remaining decent; a front passing to the north could kick up the winds

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday looks great; Sunday might feature increasing clouds as a storm builds well to the south, but that’s uncertain

Looking ahead to the week of October 12, that storm could move toward the region, but it’s not set in stone. Temperatures generally look warmer than average.

Enjoy this wave of good weather ✌️

The Hudson Valley is in the thick of early-season nor’easter. On Saturday, it brought wind gusts of over 50 mph, downed fully-leafed trees, and caused scattered power outages.

Strong winds will continue in the region on Sunday morning as the storm pushes ashore in New Jersey, but ease back slightly during the afternoon.

It’s a goofy storm. Because it was captured by a separate atmospheric disturbance, it will sit and spin near New Jersey and Long Island for over 24 hours before finally spinning away on Monday.

You have to see it to believe it:

Campbell Hall resident Ronnie Truax sent this photo of trees scattered like popsicle sticks on his property, highlighting the storm’s danger, despite the Hudson Valley being around 100 miles from its center.

But the Hudson Valley also dodged the worst of this storm, which has been at the coast. That’s where huge waves have relentlessly battered the beaches, with feet of water inundating the shoreline, flooding homes, businesses, and vehicles.

If it’s any sign of things to come this winter (I think it is), then it could be a long winter.

Anyway, this storm will be a memory by Tuesday when the sky turns brighter. It will even feel summer-like for a time later in the week.

The warmth is being shoved across the country by a hurricane, named Polo, that will cross Mexico on Monday before its remnants push across Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado from Tuesday into Wednesday, where bad flooding might unfold. Flooding and severe weather is also possible across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, so it looks like it will be another busy weather week — but not in the Northeast, at least once the nor’easter leaves.

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The week ahead

After a wet start to the week, it will heat up, with a stretch of decent weather.

Monday: rain will probably continue, at least during the morning

Tuesday: warmer as the sun returns!

Wednesday: warming up more with clouds and sun

Thursday: warmest day of the week with humidity on the rise

Friday: probably remaining warm as a front approaches, chance for a shower

Saturday-Sunday: right now, the start to the weekend is looking dry, but another system, with moisture from Hurricane Polo’s remnants, could cross the region on Sunday or Sunday night — but confidence is currently low.

Looking ahead to the week of October 5, temperatures look to turn cooler. At some point during the week, there may be a transition to a drier-than-normal pattern that lasts into mid-October.

As for my winter outlook, which will cover things like the prospect for numerous nor’easters this winter, I aim to release it to premium subscribers on Saturday, October 24. Click the button below to receive it.

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Enjoy the sun when it returns this week! ✌️

There have been scattered power outages and tree damage so far, but this will probably cause some more.

Consider charging up your stuff, and use extra caution while driving in case any trees come down.

Winds will slacken slightly from their peak by Sunday afternoon, but rain will continue through Monday.

These powerful coastal storms are better known for dumping heavy snow across the Northeast in the dead of winter.

But this one could bring three days of rain and plenty of wind — and otherwise be a nuisance.

Here are my current expectations for the wider Hudson Valley:

• Rain and gusty winds arriving late Friday or early Saturday

  • Up to 3 inches of storm total rainfall and wind gusts of 30-40 mph

• Worst of the storm hits late Saturday or early Sunday

• Storm clears by Tuesday

Here’s a satellite simulation of the storm’s path along the East Coast from Thursday to Sunday:

Along the coast, the storm will probably be more than just a nuisance. Its tropical-storm-force winds will pile water along the shore, causing several feet of inundation in coastal communities from New York City to Long Island and Boston to Cape Cod — especially during high tide.

Here’s an excerpt from my story in Thursday’s Washington Post:

I’ll be in touch in case things change and this storm magically decides to cruise by offshore. What’s more likely is that this is a sign of much more stormy weather to come later this fall and winter.

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A very powerful area of high pressure will build over Quebec while a sizable storm — likely an early-season nor’easter — brews off the coast of North Carolina.

And the Hudson Valley will be stuck in the middle of that weather sandwich.

Will the rain miss us to the south and east, or will the storm’s backside bump into the region, bringing rain and wind?

Although the storm’s track is currently uncertain, it could make its closest approach from late Friday into the weekend. How close to the coast it tracks will determine whether or not the weekend is gloomy.

One certainty is that it won’t be warm. The fall equinox is on Tuesday and it will feel like fall this week. Factor in a stiff northeasterly breeze — blowing in from Newfoundland — and it will feel more like October!

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The week ahead

It will be a rather cool and breezy one in the Hudson Valley as summer-like weather suddenly ends.

Monday: breezy with a mix of sun and clouds

Tuesday: mostly cloudy with a chance for a bit rain early; cool with a breeze

Wednesday: windy and cool with sun and clouds

Thursday: like Wednesday 🔁

Friday: more clouds, nor’easter nearing?

Saturday-Sunday: breezy with rain possible, but if the storm passes farther offshore, then the weather could turn out decent…

Looking ahead to the week of September 28, the nor’easter might still be nearby early, before departing. It probably won’t be as cool, either.

I searched for a photo that could roughly capture the tempestuous nature of this week’s weather and found this oldie-but-goodie of the Nugget Point Lighthouse in New Zealand’s South Island, with some ominous clouds in the background.

PS: I started drafting my Hudson Valley winter outlook! It will be released to premium subscribers in late October, tentatively on October 24th ❄️

Click the button below to receive it as soon as it’s published ⬇️

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And that means the Hudson Valley is in for some sterling weather to start the week.

Sun-filled afternoons are expected on Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures dipping into 40s on Monday night. The air will have that fall feeling — briefly.

But summer, which ends on September 22 this year, has one last trick up its sleeve, with humidity again building from Wednesday into Thursday.

If you’re wondering what the next few months have in store, check out my outlook released last week.

The week ahead

It will be a pleasant start to the week before a front approaches on Thursday, bringing more humidity and a chance for some rain. Decent weather should return after that, lasting at least through Saturday.

Monday: decreasing humidity and plenty of sun

Tuesday: a crisp morning with cloud-free skies

Wednesday: warmer with more clouds and humidity rolling in; slight chance for a sprinkle

Thursday: warm and muggy with a chance for a late-day or overnight shower or storm

Friday: humidity easing with clouds and sun

Saturday-Sunday: it’s looking like a dry start to the weekend for now, before rain chances increase on Sunday

Looking ahead to the week of September 21, and it could be rainy and humid to start.

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In the Atlantic Ocean, there still haven’t been any hurricanes so far this year.

Since records began in 1851, there have only been two years that featured zero hurricanes: 1907 and 1914. Hurricane season runs through November, so there’s still plenty of time, and it’s looking like patterns may become more conducive toward storm activity from late September into October.

While the Atlantic has been unusually calm, the Pacific has been very active, with Hawaii being hit by two hurricanes so far this season, a rare occurrence.

The soon-to-be most powerful El Niño event on record — and its record warm Pacific Ocean temperatures — is the main driving force behind these unusual storm patterns.

Another patch of record warm water near Southern California has been contributing to very unusual humidity levels there.

In this week’s Washington Post, I wrote about a unique type of ocean wave that will reach California’s shores in the weeks ahead, raising sea levels and elevating the risk for coastal flooding and damaging storms there this winter.

Here’s a gift link to read about that.

By now, you’ve almost certainly heard about El Niño, a warming of the ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is now nearing all-time record levels — considering records dating back to around 1850.

This will have a notable effect on the Hudson Valley’s weather from late fall through winter and spring, probably making it stormier.

But before we get to that, let’s take a quick look at the week ahead. It gets an “A” for awesome!

Monday: superb with low humidity and plenty of sunshine ☀️

Tuesday: mostly sunny and a bit warmer than Monday

Wednesday: warm with sun and increasing clouds and humidity; some rain possible at night

Thursday: warm and humid with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible

Friday: amazing weather — low humidity and wall-to-wall sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: looking good for now, warming up with a good deal of sunshine

Looking ahead to the week of September 14, it could be quite warm to start. Conditions look to generally lean drier than normal.

As for the weather through the end of the year…

Read more

Great, because as meteorological fall starts on Tuesday, it will instead feel more like summer 🙃

Mother Nature will deliver a tricky week of weather to the region, with escalating humidity and chances for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong-to-severe, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In a relatively rare, early move, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center highlighted the Hudson Valley as having atmospheric conditions that are particularly conducive to strong storms on Wednesday. That will be something to watch this week, as schools open their doors for a brand new year.

This pattern comes as a large dome of high pressure builds near the East Coast. The Hudson Valley will be near the northern edge of this high pressure zone, which is often where thunderstorms are found.

Thunderstorms, sunshine, or snow, I’ll help you stay one step ahead of the weather this school year!

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The week ahead

The week ahead will feature several chances for storms and elevated humidity, although conditions should improve by the weekend.

Monday: clouds thicken, chance for showers later on

Tuesday: noticeably more humid and warm with afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible — some strong

Wednesday: not quite as warm as Tuesday, but a similar chance for strong thunderstorms, especially later

Thursday: still muggy, but storm chances don’t look quite as high as prior days

Friday: a cold front may approach, bringing another chance for a shower or t-storm

Saturday-Sunday: decreasing humidity and increasing sunshine is the current gist of the forecast — but there still could be a chance for some isolated rain

Looking ahead to the week of September 7, conditions could start calm and comfortable, with a chance for some unsettled weather later. It will also be the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and there could be a few storms to watch.

The beauty of spring in a photo: A tui bird perches on a blooming cherry blossom tree in Auckland, a clear sign of a changing season.

Push off the branch and fly this school year! ✌️

Temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid-50s early Tuesday and Wednesday, typical of early September.

It only reached 90 degrees once or twice this month and there’s no such high heat on the horizon. It could still reach 90 again in September — and I do think it will heat up again — but the clock is ticking.

The region has also managed to dodge the worst of the flooding rainfall events that have plagued the country in recent weeks, thanks in part to extra atmospheric moisture flowing in from an El Niño-torched Pacific Ocean. I wrote about this in Sunday’s Washington Post; here’s a gift article.

Those downpours will eventually reach the Hudson Valley this fall, and I plan to dig into that topic a little more next month, when I release my thoughts on fall weather patterns to premium subscribers.

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The week ahead

The week ahead looks decent overall, with some rain chances here and there, especially on Thursday.

Monday: mainly sunny, but a brief sprinkle or shower can’t be ruled out

Tuesday: a cool start to the day, similar to Monday overall with a slight shower chance

Wednesday: another cool morning, plenty of sun

Thursday: humidity rises, as does the chance for showers and storms, mainly later

Friday: humid air lingers as stormy weather probably departs

Saturday-Sunday: it’s looking like a mostly dry weekend at this point

Looking ahead to the week of August 31, it could be rather warm and humid to start, with a chance for 90-degree-heat, followed by a cool down — maybe just in time for school to start?

In the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane season is nearing its peak, a tropical storm could form over the open ocean this week, but it currently looks unlikely to pose a long-term threat to the United States.

About 32 quadrillion miles away, there’s some interesting weather going on.

Interstellar winds are blowing the gas associated with the lobster nebula, a deep sky object that I was recently able to capture from New Zealand on a clear night. Apparently, it’s 70,000 degrees Fahrenheit in the center of that thing.

There won’t be an early taste of fall there!

But the Northeast? Things aren’t too bad around here.

We can’t possibly be done with 90-degree heat for the summer, can we?

Back in September 2015, the last time there was a super El Niño, it reach at least 90 degrees on six out of the first nine days of that month.

If history is a useful guide, then there’s more high heat coming this summer!

But not really this week. It will be muggy on a couple of days, but a more comfortable air mass will probably arrive by Friday.

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The week ahead

A stormy start and finish is possible in the Hudson Valley with some decent weather in the middle.

Monday: it’s going to be humid as morning clouds break for afternoon sun; there’s a chance for a PM shower or t-storm

Tuesday: warm with a good deal of sunshine

Wednesday: warmer yet and more humid, but probably remaining dry

Thursday: chance for a shower or t-storm as a front approaches

Friday: probably dry with lower humidity and sun

Saturday-Sunday: the weekend could come with rising chances for scattered showers and storms

Looking ahead to the week of August 24, it could be on the cooler and drier side for the time of year. Although the peak of hurricane season is just a few weeks away, the threat for storms continues to look lower than normal across the Atlantic.

That’s because extremely warm water associated with a record-breaking El Niño in the Pacific is focusing the storm action there — and harsh winds in the upper atmosphere that spread from the Pacific to the Atlantic are acting like a hedge trimmer for potential hurricanes.

Speaking of El Niño, I wrote a piece in the Washington Post this week that looked at what this extraordinary global event could mean for temperatures in 2027 — basically pushing them a decade ahead of the recent trend line, giving the world a preview of the late 2030s. Here’s a gift article if you want to check it out.

There is no modern precedent for an event of this scale and intensity and one of its many impacts will probably be frequent, strong storms near the U.S. East Coast starting in mid-to-late fall.

Time permitting, I’d like to provide some commentary on possible fall weather patterns in the Hudson Valley for premium subscribers at some point in the weeks ahead — so stay tuned!

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Why has it been so humid lately? The air mass overhead traveled from the Caribbean — specifically, Cuba — over the past 10 days. Here’s what that path looked like.

That muggy air is finally going to depart on Sunday afternoon.

These less humid conditions will come at the expense of more wildfire smoke this week. This weekend, 11 new fires have been reported in southern British Columbia, with their smoke filling the skies and spreading east.

You might notice a smoky haze on Monday, but especially Tuesday — and it may last into Wednesday. Fortunately, it will be lofted high in the sky and won’t cause poor quality.

Otherwise, temperatures don’t look too extreme for mid-August standards.

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The week ahead

The week ahead will generally feature more comfortable weather. A gusty storm could pass on Thursday with a cold front, followed by breezy conditions.

Monday: hottest day of the week with a PM t-storm possible

Tuesday: less humid as wildfire haze blows in from Canada

Wednesday: hazy sunshine with low humidity

Thursday: partly sunny with a gusty shower or t-storm possible as a cold front passes

Friday: nicer with low humidity; breezy

Saturday-Sunday: the forecast currently looks dry Saturday but chances for precipitation increase somewhat on Sunday

Looking ahead to the week of August 17, it could turn hotter but it doesn’t look especially humid. There could be more episodes of wildfire haze.

Sick of the humidity? Well, fall and winter aren’t that far off. Meteorological fall starts in just a few weeks on September 1.

A record-breaking El Niño threatens to bring some wild weather to the United States in the seasons ahead — and it looks particularly stormy along the East Coast, starting from around October onward. I’ll have more to share about this in the coming months, with premium subscribers receiving seasonal outlooks first and any new special features that may be coming this winter 😉

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Snow day in New Zealand

This week, it dropped to an icy 29 degrees at my house in New Zealand! But I searching for more than just frost. I needed to see some snow. So off to the central North Island my wife and I went, where three mountains — Ngaurahoe, Ruapehu, and Tongariro — stand tall and snow-capped.

Ngaurahoe, a volcanic cone reaching over 7,500 feet, is the most picturesque of the three.

It takes a little over four hours to drive from Auckland to this winter wonderland. The roads are twisty and sometimes challenging with relatively few straight zones.

But these views make it all worth it.

But that will soon change.

The week ahead will feature a brief spell of comfortable weather on Tuesday before the muggy meter gets turned up.

The Bermuda high pressure system, a summertime fixture in the central Atlantic Ocean, will become anchored near the East Coast — farther west than normal — bringing days of sultry conditions, especially from late Wednesday onward.

Factor in the region’s wet grounds and it’s basically going to turn into a jungle out there 🌴

Unsurprisingly, this pattern will also come with a daily chance for showers and storms as the high humidity fuels atmospheric instability.

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The week ahead

Well, Tuesday looks like a 10/10, but it’s all downhill from there!

Monday: morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm will clear to sunshine during the afternoon; becoming less humid

Tuesday: brilliant ☀️

Wednesday: there’s a chance for showers early in the day, with a mix of sun and clouds as well as increasing humidity otherwise

Thursday: it will feel like a jungle out there! 🌦️

Friday: similar to Thursday, but probably hotter 🌡️

Saturday-Sunday: early signs point to more of the same: warm and muggy with shower and storm chances 🔁

Looking ahead to the week of August 10, it looks to gradually turn less humid.

Wildfire smoke filling the sky

An explosive wildfire outbreak unfolded in eastern Washington near Spokane on Sunday, as yet more smoke filled the sky. This smoke will move into Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver on Monday and Tuesday, greatly reducing air quality there.

During July, 20 percent of the Northern Hemisphere’s land area — around 7.5 million square miles — was covered by moderate concentrations of wildfire smoke at some point. That includes the Hudson Valley and many other major population centers, both in North America and Europe.

You can read more about this serious situation in Sunday’s Washington Post, written by my colleagues and I. Here’s a gift article.

In some non-smoky and non-muggy news, my wife and I journeyed to the middle of the North Island this weekend in search of snow. We succeeded in our search and I’ll share some more photos soon!

Here’s one for now:

Thanks for reading and catch you next week. Stay 🆒

But awards are tough to win every week.

In the days ahead, the region will transition to a muggier, stormier — and potentially smokier — weather pattern.

Later Tuesday looks especially rough. I’m concerned about the potential for slow-moving storms and flooding, with areas of heavy rain probably lingering on Wednesday. A storm tracking southward from Canada is expected to stall near the region, with its progress impeded by a large area of high pressure forming near Greenland.

There’s also tons of smoke pouring from fires in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. This smoke is expected to reach the Hudson Valley later Sunday, with the potential for hazy skies. More smoke will probably arrive on Tuesday, although I’m not sure how much of it will be visible given the expectation for plenty of clouds. This smoke will be lofted high in the sky and I’m not currently expecting air quality to be affected.

After several unsettled days, conditions should improve by Friday. Saturday also looks decent for now. While our neck of the woods avoids scorching heat this week, the West and Plains will bake.

How does 125 degrees in Death Valley sound? Or 114 in Oklahoma?

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The week ahead

The weather this week won’t be the greatest, especially later Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday: an OK start to the week, but there could be a passing PM shower or storm

Tuesday: the weather will really go downhill as a storm arrives; be mindful of the risk of storms and flooding through the night

Wednesday: slow-moving showers and storms could again form over the region, especially in the afternoon

Thursday: the weather should start to improve, though there’s still a chance for lingering showers

Friday: increasing sunshine, still some isolated shower potential

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday currently looks good and Sunday could be mostly decent too — but there’s a chance for a shower/storm

Looking ahead to the week of August 3 (wow, August already?!), and it doesn’t look quite as unsettled as this week does. It could also turn hotter, but I’m not seeing any exceptional heat for now.

Late Saturday, satellite imagery captured this remarkable view of smoke plumes from numerous fires burning across Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia.

Hundreds of thousands of acres have already burned and there’s no rain in the forecast.

Wildfire haze could continue to waft across the Hudson Valley’s skies into August.

I’m not sure exactly what this summer has turned into, but a sequence of record-breaking heat, severe storms, flooding rainfall, horrendous wildfire smoke, and yet more storms is enough to make anyone’s head spin.

From a meteorological perspective, the last week has been about as busy as one with a winter storm or hurricane.

In the Hudson Valley, skies are clearer and cleaner this Sunday, but there’s still some smoke around. That should fully clear on Sunday afternoon.

Monday is looking pretty clear and it will be raining up on the Canadian fires. That’s the good news.

On Tuesday, more rain, possible storms, higher humidity and perhaps a touch of smoke are in the forecast. A rather strong summer cold front will blow through on Wednesday, with some lingering showers possible.

After that, the weather is going to turn magnificent during what’s typically the hottest time of the year. Some well-deserved good weather — as long as the smoke stays away.

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The week ahead

Aside from the period from Tuesday into Wednesday, the week ahead looks pretty solid — as long as smoke concentrations stay low.

Monday: wonderful

Tuesday: turning more humid with a risk for storms that bring heavy rain and gusty winds, mainly later

Wednesday: some lingering showers are possible as a cold front passes and the air turns less humid

Thursday: magnificent

Friday: nice again

Saturday-Sunday: at this point, odds favor a decent weekend, but this forecast is not set in stone

Looking ahead to the week of July 27, I’m seeing more of the same: A lack of sustained high heat with frequent wind flows from Canada. There could be more frequent showers and thunderstorms, but that would also help keep smoke concentrations low.

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This is what the sun looked like from my backyard on Sunday, with one little blemish (sunspot) in the center.

Interestingly, some people in wildfire smoke-affected areas of the Eastern U.S. were able to capture this very sunspot without any special camera equipment.

That’s because the smoke filtered out some of the sun’s intense glare, leaving behind a muted orange disk that revealed the sunspot.

Here’s hoping for more sun and less smoke this week!

The good news? This will probably be the last really bad wildfire smoke day in the Northeast for a little while.

The bad news? It’s going to be a bad wildfire smoke and thunderstorm day, and rain could leave behind specks of soot and ash on cars, windows, and other outdoor surfaces.

Early Saturday, New York City was the third most polluted major city in the world — behind D.C. and Toronto — and that acrid air was on its way toward the Hudson Valley.

The highest smoke concentrations are expected between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. in the region, when air quality index values could again surge into the unhealthy and very unhealthy ranges.

This will be coupled with the potential for gusty afternoon and evening thunderstorms, again bringing a risk for damaging winds to the Hudson Valley.

Beyond that already serious risk, the rain was also likely to bring down some soot and ash with it, which could appear as smudgy black marks on outdoor surfaces.

Not fun.

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By Saturday night, the rain should have washed most of the smoke out of the sky with the wind blowing the rest of it away. While a little more smoke could waft through on Sunday, concentrations look low — good news for the World Cup final.

Rain is expected in the main wildfire areas in western Ontario from Monday into Tuesday, helping to tamp down the fires and reducing their smoke outputs.

That should also reduce the chances for another really big outbreak of smoke around here — for now.

If you’re interested in reading more about why Canadian wildfire smoke has more frequently affected the U.S., I explored that complicated topic and much more in Saturday’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift article.

Here’s to clearer skies!