There were strong and locally damaging thunderstorms in the region on Saturday. A heat wave is probably coming this week. More humidity is on the way too.

I think it’s safe to say that summer is well and truly arriving in the Hudson Valley!

Wall-to-wall sunshine and pleasant warmth on Monday will be followed by progressively hotter conditions.

The region will hardly be alone in dealing with the heat. Across the country, some 140 million people can expect temperatures in the 90s this week with 100-degree heat for around 20 million more.

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The week ahead

It’s going to be a toasty week in the Hudson Valley with increasing humidity and more thunderstorms possible.

Monday: the pick weather day of the week with abundant sunshine and comfortable warmth ⭐

Tuesday: noticeably warmer than Monday, but humidity will remain low

Wednesday: turning hotter and muggier with a shower or thunderstorm chance later in the day

Thursday: another steamy one with a shower or storm chance later on

Friday: probably the most sultry day of the week with the potential for a strong storm as a front blows through later 🔥

Saturday-Sunday: right now, I’m favoring decent weekend weather with lower humidity, at least on Saturday — but keep an eye on the forecast in case of changes

Looking ahead to the week of June 15, there are some signs that the weather may shift in a more unsettled direction.

Stay 🆒 this week ✌️

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The first week of June will come with progressively warmer temperatures and ample sunshine in the Hudson Valley — swinging from the upper 30s on Sunday morning to around 90 by Friday.

Humidity levels will be low — at least until the weekend — which fits the pattern of fewer high heat extremes in early summer during developing super El Niño events. If you’re wondering what the rest of summer may bring, check out my recently published Hudson Valley summer outlook.

The week ahead

It will be a pretty solid start to June, weather-wise.

Monday: sunshine and comfortable temperatures could come with a stray afternoon or evening shower for some

Tuesday: plenty of sunshine as comfy temperatures continue

Wednesday: warmer with abundant sunshine

Thursday: like Wednesday, but warmer

Friday: hot with sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: an approaching front on Saturday could bring moderate humidity and a chance for a shower or storm, which may continue into Sunday

Looking ahead to the week of June 8, the chances for a heat wave appear low for now and it could turn wetter.

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Greetings from…

Melbourne, Australia! This week, my newsletter comes to you from the land down under.

As meteorological winter arrives in the Southern Hemisphere, this city of over 5 million people has been experiencing high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

It’s a fun place to spend a long weekend and is a bit more lively than Auckland, which seems to have a perpetual bedtime of around 6 p.m. 😁

Happy meteorological summer (and winter)!

First, a quick forecast for the week ahead, then we’ll get into it.

A high temperature of 97 degrees last Tuesday. Steady rain with temperatures in the 40s early Sunday. What a roller coaster. The week ahead will be less dramatic.

After a few days with high temperatures in the 80s, an air mass from Canada will usher cooler conditions, especially next weekend. This should also result in minimal rainfall and low humidity levels — with the meteorological summer season little more than a week away.

Monday: rain during the morning, then drying out in the afternoon

Tuesday: warming up with highs in the lower 80s

Wednesday: probably be the warmest day of the week — reaching the mid to upper 80s — before a late-day cold front brings a chance for a passing shower or thunderstorm

Thursday: comfortably warm, stray shower can’t be ruled out

Friday: similar to Thursday, nice

Saturday-Sunday: another cold front will probably cause rather cool conditions for the time of year, especially at night; at this point, a passing shower or two can’t be ruled out, but I don’t think it will define the weekend

Looking ahead to the week of June 1, temperatures look quite comfortable for the time of year as humidity remains low.

Now, to the summer outlook.

Read more

That means summer is here, right?!

Wrong.

Naturally, temperatures are going to be stuck in the 50s this weekend as rain streaks down your windows — and the summer season unofficially starts.

Mother Nature sure likes to play some cruel jokes.

Here’s an outlook for Saturday to Monday.

Read more

Perhaps you’ve been ready since the snowy days of January and February. Or perhaps you’re not ready at all.

Either way, it’s coming. But this summer-like weather won’t signal a sustained shift toward high heat in the Hudson Valley.

If you’re wondering when that shift will come, stay tuned for my Hudson Valley summer outlook. It’s coming out next weekend, just for premium subscribers. Feel free to click the button below to receive it.

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This week, there could be more than a 50-degree difference between peak temperatures on Tuesday afternoon and low temperatures on Friday morning 😵‍💫

The week ahead

The region will say hello and then goodbye to summer weather in a matter of days.

Monday: July-like weather 🌡️

Tuesday: like Monday, but hotter and becoming more humid; a stray late-day shower or storm can’t be ruled out 🌡️🌡️

Wednesday: hot and humid once again; a PM cold front will probably bring showers and storms and cool things off 🌡️

Thursday: much cooler with clouds and sun

Friday: a cool morning; plenty of sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: the sun might depart in time for the weekend as rain chances increase 🤦‍♂️

Looking ahead to the week of May 25, sustained high heat looks unlikely. The week could start unsettled before turning drier.

I’ll have more to say about summer patterns in my report next week. Consider upgrading your subscription to receive it.

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Tales from 150 years ago

I’ve been writing quite a bit about a potentially intense El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean this year that’s expected to have wide-reaching weather impacts. I’ll have more to say about what this means for the Hudson Valley in my summer outlook.

This past week, I wrote a story that looked back at a devastating El Niño event in 1877-78 that contributed to global population losses of 3 to 4 percent.

Here’s a gift link.

It was a popular piece that generated some interesting discussions.

I was surprised to receive an email from a New Yorker whose grandmother had shared an account of this event from long ago with her.

She wrote that her grandmother’s brother was probably a casualty of the El Niño event, succumbing to “summer complaint” in the summer of 1878 — probably from tainted cow’s milk that had been kept only in a shed for cooling.

Then, a decade later, during the super El Niño of 1888, her grandmother recalled sledding in June in Ulster County, New York!

There was a historic blizzard in March of that year — the Great Blizzard of 1888 — that produced widespread snowfall of 30 to 50 inches in the Northeast, with drifts reportedly reaching 30 to 40 feet. In Ulster County, wagons that had collected the snow dumped it into local ravines, she wrote.

Because of a cool spring that year, big piles in these shady hollows lasted for months. That’s what brought the now unfathomable opportunity to sled in early summer in the Hudson Valley.

This week’s weather is a piece of cake compared to all of that! ✌️

The weather pendulum will keep on swinging across the Hudson Valley this week, bringing a little bit of everything — cool temperatures, rain, and eventually some warmth.

It’s part of a nationwide balancing act from Mother Nature, with summer-like heat primed to bake some of the West, as temperatures soar toward 117 degrees in Death Valley, California on Monday.

In the East, including the Hudson Valley, there are signs of a push toward much warmer weather into the week of May 18.

But first, we’ll keep muddling through the ups and downs.

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The week ahead

As in previous weeks, the weather will go downhill as the week goes along.

Monday: more clouds than sun as a system passes offshore and a cold front approaches

Tuesday: a chilly start, but sunshine will create a mild afternoon

Wednesday: plenty of clouds with rain arriving

Thursday: unsettled weather lingers with scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder

Friday: partly sunny, but isolated showers can’t be ruled out

Saturday-Sunday: there’s uncertainty in the weekend forecast as of this writing, but a trend toward warmer weather is a decent possibility

A comet for the ages ☄️

Earlier this week, I had the pleasure of viewing a rare comet in the Southern Hemisphere’s skies.

This green ball of ice, gas and dust, dubbed C/2025 R3 (PanSTARRS), is about 60 million miles away from Earth.

It has an orbital period around the sun of 170,000 years. That means once it soon moves toward the outer edges of the solar system and disappears from view, it won’t be visible for another 1,700 centuries.

See you again in the year 172,026!

Shoot for the stars this week ✌️

Much like last week, things are going to start off decently warm, then there’s going to be some rain, followed by another surge of cooler air — making it tough on plants that are sensitive to the cold.

Keep your sweatshirts handy!

I’m not seeing an abrupt start to summer-like weather this month in our neck of the woods. I think that’s partly tied to the remnants of a persistent polar vortex pattern from this past winter as well as a developing El Niño.

I’ll have more to say about El Niño soon in my Hudson Valley summer outlook for premium subscribers!

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The week ahead

The week ahead will start strong but then take a nosedive.

Monday: seasonably warm and turning breezy with some sun

Tuesday: a warm flow of air from the southwest will cause temperatures to surge 🌡️

Wednesday: clouds and rain return, ending the warmth and sunshine

Thursday: rather dreary, showers can’t be ruled out, mainly later

Friday: windy again with some sun and a stray shower chance

Saturday-Sunday: there’s uncertainty in the weekend outlook as of this writing, but Saturday looks rather cool and possibly showery followed by a dry (?) Mother’s Day 🤞

The week of May 11 looks like — get ready for this — more of the same! Rather cool with a few rain chances 🤷‍♂️

Here’s AI’s interpretation of the pattern:

Check back next week for another riveting edition of this weather loop! ✌️

And if you’re interested in some extra reading, here’s a gift link to my story in this week’s Washington Post about an expansive drought covering much of the United States.

Temperatures are typically on the rise this time of the year. But we’re going backwards this week: It will be near 70 to start and in the 50s by the end. Nighttime temperatures will dip into the 30s.

I know, that’s probably not what you want to hear.

The coming cool weather is actually the last vestige of the polar vortex pattern that brought a rather cold and snowy winter to the region. And gusty winds won’t make it feel any warmer.

It could even snow in the mountains of the Northeast next weekend.

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The week ahead

Mother Nature is having a tough time gaining traction toward sustained warmer weather.

Monday: the pick day of the week 🥇

Tuesday: some morning sun giving way to clouds; slight chance for an evening shower

Wednesday: not terrible; clouds increasing as rain approaches late

Thursday: a cool, dreary one with morning rain probably ending; turning windy

Friday: windy and cooler with clouds and sun

Saturday-Sunday: if cool mornings, afternoons in the 50s and gusty winds are your thing, then next weekend might just be for you

Looking ahead to the week of May 4, there may be a few warmer days followed by more cool ones — but I’m not seeing any big heat coming anytime soon.

If you’re interested in some additional reading, check out my piece in this week’s Washington Post about a 5,000-mile marine heat wave that could really crank up the temperatures in the West this summer. Here’s a gift link.

Before you go and enjoy this week’s lovely weather, take a virtual trip to some of the bluest water you might just ever see, in New Zealand’s North Island.

It’s called the blue spring. The water temperature is in the low 50s. It’s so blue because it takes 50 to 100 years to emerge in this spring from the mountains, where most particulate matter is removed, leaving behind water of the highest optical purity.

Keep moving forward this week ✌️

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It reached 90 degrees in parts of the Hudson Valley on Thursday during a four-day stretch with temperatures reaching 80 or higher.

And now, well, even a stray flurry can’t be ruled out in the days ahead as an Alaska-sourced chill arrives in the region.

Weather swings are normal during spring, but a change of almost 70 degrees in a matter of days is next-level stuff. Especially for your temperature-sensitive plants!

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The week ahead

The week ahead will deliver a dose of the realities of spring to the Hudson Valley.

Monday: cool with isolated showers and maybe even a flurry!

Tuesday: near-record low morning temperatures; sun to start, then some more clouds arrive

Wednesday: a few showers possible, mainly early; otherwise, clouds limiting sun

Thursday: warmer with a mix of clouds and sun

Friday: it could turn out decent — if the rain holds off, which is currently uncertain

Saturday-Sunday: more clouds and increasing chances for some rain, but amounts and timing are currently uncertain

Looking ahead to the week of April 27, more unseasonably cool air may drift toward the region. Summer-like warmth looks like it’s a long way away.

For a little more reading about the coming chill, check out my story in this week’s Washington Post: Some states will go from record heat to a freeze — thanks to Alaska.

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Hold on tight for Mother Nature’s wild ride ✌️

Last Wednesday, it dropped to 19 degrees in Montgomery.

Temperatures will soar well into the 80s just a week later. And on Thursday, it will be near 90 degrees. That’s more like June or July.

That’s the type of variability that spring is known for, but a 70-degree temperature swing is more like whiplash.

It will feel like summer up and down the East Coast this week as a big ridge of high-pressure flexes its muscles and sends sultry air northward.

Here’s a shocker: It won’t last.

Much cooler air from Canada will sweep in late next weekend or to start the week of April 20.

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The week ahead

It will feel summer at times this week in the Hudson Valley. Occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm will add to the vibe 🌦️

Monday: warm, but plenty of clouds with isolated afternoon showers

Tuesday: temperatures reach the 80s under clouds and sun; chance for a PM shower or storm

Wednesday: very warm with a tinge of humidity, perhaps a heavy PM shower or thunderstorm

Thursday: hot with clouds and sun 🌡️

Friday: not as hot with some sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: still warm Saturday; cold front approaches Sunday, bringing a chance for a shower or storm and falling temperatures, though its timing is uncertain for now

Looking ahead to the week of April 20, conditions look rather cool to start the week, followed by a return to warmer weather after that. It also looks drier than normal.

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I can’t promise sunsets like these in your neck of the woods, but I can promise a much warmer week. Enjoy it ✌️

I’m monitoring the potential for some passing wet snow showers late Monday night, which will be followed by freezing temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

I know that’s just the news you want to hear on April 5.

Fear not, as it should mark the last snow chance of the season — and much warmer temperatures are within reach.

This is my 700th weekly newsletter. I’ve been issuing them for the last 13.5 years — which takes us back to 2012 — rarely missing a week. Back in the day, I used to maintain an email list in a word document and manually paste hundreds of emails into the “to” field. That’s not exactly glamorous, but persistence pays.

Looking even further back, I can locate chronicles of every winter weather event in the Hudson Valley that I kept in 2009. The 2026 me is impressed with the 2009 version’s detail. Apparently February 2010 featured back-to-back-to-back snow days!

The approximate birth year of my snow day predictions is 2004.

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Now back to 2026 for this week’s forecast.

The week ahead

The week ahead will bring some serious temperature swings and more wind, but at least there will be sun most days.

Monday: a rather cool, breezy start to the week with a chance for wet snow showers late at night

Tuesday: chilly and windy with some sun; freezing at night

Wednesday: a frosty start with abundant sunshine

Thursday: warming up with sun and a breeze

Friday: breezy and much warmer

Saturday-Sunday: at this point, the weekend looks alright — a front could pass Saturday, but the weather may not change much

Looking ahead to the week of April 13, it looks rather warm to start. I’d hold off on planting stuff at this point because of continued frost risks, but I think we’re close to turning a corner, temperature-wise 📈

If you’re interested in some additional weather reading, here are two of my stories in The Post this week:

• See where flowers and leaves are emerging early after record-warm March

• What are triplet cyclones? This rare phenomenon could have global impacts.

Talk to you next week in newsletter #701 ✌️

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A collection of clouds, fronts, and drastic temperature changes throughout the week look relatively undesirable.

Don’t be fooled by a fleeting period of early week sunshine. It won’t stick around.

The ‘best’ weather of the week will be at the start — and I use the word best loosely. Showery conditions should at least make emerging leaves and plants happy.

It’s not a bad week to be on spring break… in Florida or California 😎

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The week ahead

No day will be quite like the previous one this week.

We’ve reached the time of year when forecasts are more susceptible to changes. There are more sluggish fronts nearby — and whether fronts pass or stall determine if it will be warm or cool. That is challenging to pinpoint days in advance.

Monday: not a bad start to the week with mild temperatures and some sun

Tuesday: a warm front passing through the area during the morning could bring a heavy shower or thunderstorm; drying out and warming up after that

Wednesday: warmth hanging on at first… but it will be erased by a cold front that will bring showers, probably by afternoon

Thursday: much cooler and dreary

Friday: another front approaches, keeping showers in the forecast

Saturday-Sunday: a relatively cool but dry (?) start to the weekend looks possible, then yet another front could approach on Sunday 🤷‍♂️

Looking ahead to the week of April 7, conditions look cool to start. I’m not betting on more snow, but I’ve seen stranger things!

Hope your week isn’t blah! ✌️

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It won’t be 70 and sunny every day — sorry — but it could be worse this time of the year. Plus, old Man Winter appears to be on his last legs.

You could be sweltering in 112-degree heat in Arizona and California, where new March national temperature records were set on Friday, or you could be in Juneau, Alaska, where it’s snowed almost every day of the month.

Suddenly, the milder climes of the Hudson Valley don’t sound so bad.

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The week ahead

The week ahead will have plenty of wind, a solid dose of sun, and a pinch of rain in the Hudson Valley.

Monday: after rain on Sunday night, it will clear out, but it will be blustery and there could be a passing afternoon shower

Tuesday: a cold, frosty morning followed by a pleasant afternoon

Wednesday: turning windy again with more clouds than sun; a touch of rain possible at night

Thursday: mild with some sun; a soaking rain possible at night

Friday: lingering rain possible early; strong winds usher clearing skies and a cooler air mass

Saturday-Sunday: a chilly start to the weekend finishes milder; probably dry

Looking ahead to the week of March 30, conditions could turn rather warm around the start of April. Some of the hot air that has been baking the West will migrate eastward.

For a little extra reading about that, check out my story in this week’s Washington Post about the new national March temperature record.

Out west, Mother Nature skipped straight to July, but in the Hudson Valley, the weather has been following a more typical March script.

I think this proverb will be proven accurate this month, which has featured temperatures as high as 80 and as low as 12 in the Hudson Valley.

Next up: Ripping winds on Monday followed by another big temperature swing and a transition to more settled conditions.

The Hudson Valley will miss the severe weather outbreak that’s expected to bring tornadoes and damaging winds to the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, but several rumbles of thunder are possible locally. The day will be capped off by a period of heavy evening rain and wind before temperatures nosedive overnight.

After that, things finally turn a little more normal around here.

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The week ahead

After a tumultuous start to the week, the weather will turn tamer.

Monday: warm and even a bit humid with showers, storms, and strong winds

Tuesday: windy and much cooler

Wednesday: cool, tranquil

Thursday: a little milder than Wednesday; a passing rain or snow shower can’t be ruled out

Friday: turning milder yet; a passing shower can’t be ruled out

Saturday-Sunday: a front could cross the region on Saturday, bringing a chance for rain before conditions turn cooler on Sunday

The week of March 23 looks rather chilly to start in the Hudson Valley. An unprecedented March heat wave in the West — bringing 110-degree heat — probably won’t reach the East in any meaningful capacity.

Cold spells will likely continue through the end of the month, though it does look drier than normal. Lingering snow day chances this season appear to be dwindling.

Hope your week is like a lamb ✌️

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S***

Not even an 80-degree day could scare it away. But it will make it harder for snow to stick!

The temperature will drop from 70 to 40 on Wednesday night as a strong cold front rips across the Hudson Valley.

By late Thursday morning, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and the atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow.

Any snow at that point will melt on contact.

But during the mid-to-late afternoon hours, perhaps coinciding with the commute, there’s a chance for a period of steadier snow in the Hudson Valley.

It’s not locked in, but it could bring a light accumulation to grass and car tops — and in a worse case scenario, a little slush on the roads.

Because of the tenuous nature of the event, I hesitate to issue these percentages, but alas, I must say there’s a 1-in-5 chance for early dismissals on Thursday — mainly in the Catskills where it will be colder and in mountainous areas east of the Hudson River, such as eastern Dutchess County, where it will be colder and snow could fall harder.

Even in those places it might not — and probably won’t — amount to much, but it always pays to be aware of the possibility.

A little more snow could reach the region on Friday afternoon and again Sunday, but impacts, if any, look minimal 🙃

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The Hudson Valley might just get that early this week. With plentiful sunshine on Monday and Tuesday and gusty-but-warm southwesterly winds, I’m taking the ‘over’ on temperatures. Wednesday looks warm too, but there will be more clouds.

Don’t get used to it.

By Thursday, it’s back to reality and the bumpy road that is March. I’m talking about the weather, not the potholes!

There’s even a chance that rain changes to wet snow when a strong cold front crosses the region on Thursday. And we’ll have to watch Sunday too.

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The week ahead

The week ahead typifies March, with temperatures swinging around 50 degrees from the 70s to the 20s and blustery conditions.

Monday: sunny and warm; could be the region’s first 70-degree day since October 19

Tuesday: even warmer than Monday; a high in the mid-70s would be record-breaking and is more typical of late May or early June

Wednesday: warm again, but turning cloudier as a front approaches; chance for some afternoon or evening showers

Thursday: a strong cold front will cause temperatures to nosedive; expect some rain, possibly changing to wet snow❓

Friday: probably a dry, windy, and cool day

Saturday-Sunday: the weekend outlook is somewhat uncertain, although Saturday seems more likely to be dry than Sunday when another storm could approach

The week of March 16 looks to turn considerably colder, a reminder that winter isn’t technically over.

Don’t put away that shovel just yet!

I’ll get back in touch in case of any escalating wintry weather this week. If not, soak up the sun! 😎

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This won’t be a big storm, but even a little ice can cause issues out there.

It’s looking like a close call between closings and early dismissals, but given an expected storm arrival time of late morning for most of the Hudson Valley, I lean in the direction of closings.

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With a cold air mass from Canada overhead, freezing temperatures on Monday, and temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 on Tuesday morning when precipitation arrives, snow and ice should have no trouble sticking, creating slippery roads.

Timing

Snow will start between 9 a.m. and noon on Tuesday from south to north, before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain in the afternoon.

Amounts

Up to an inch or two of snow followed by a glaze of ice, with the highest amounts along and north of I-84.

Impacts

Roads will become snow-coated and slippery by midday Tuesday with slippery conditions lingering into the evening commute.

School closings are more likely than early dismissals because the latter risks a dismissal into the developing storm.

Here’s an excerpt from my story in Monday’s Washington Post.

Stay safe!

It hasn’t reached the 60s in the Hudson Valley since early November. It’s been a long, harsh winter, but there’s some light at the end of this tunnel — as meteorological spring begins on Sunday.

But first (you knew there had to be a but), we’ll have to deal with Tuesday.

A no good, icy mix will probably cause messy roads and yet more school disruptions.

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Timing

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain starting late Tuesday morning.

Amounts

A few inches of snow are possible, followed by a glaze of ice.

Impacts

School closings or early dismissals are about equally likely at this point. As the start time of the storm becomes clearer over the next day, it will become clearer which option is best.

Roads will become snow-covered and slippery by Tuesday afternoon, lingering into the evening commute.

The week ahead

It will be a contrasting week of weather in the Hudson Valley, with winter cold to start and milder spring air to finish. Temperature forecasts look extra challenging this week, as several weather systems bring clouds, rain, and shifting winds that could cause a day that’s forecast to reach the 50s fail to make it out of the 40s.

Be prepared for some forecast shifts.

Monday: very cold but sunny

Tuesday: wintry mix arriving, slippery PM commute

Wednesday: clouds giving way to some sun, milder

Thursday: plenty of clouds with a chance for showers or rain

Friday: dreary with rain possible, especially early

Saturday-Sunday: warming up, but it’s uncertain just how warm it will get 📈 ❓

Looking ahead to the week of March 9, conditions look very mild to start, with 60s and even 70s possible.

A mid-month cool down looks possible after that.

I have a feeling we’re not quite done with Old Man Winter just yet, but he’s going to soon give us a nice break.

I’ll have another update on Monday morning about the Tuesday situation.

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If you’re up for some more reading, you can check out my recap of this memorable winter season in today’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift link to the article.

Our reply: Haven’t we suffered enough this winter?! 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♀️

Less than an inch of snow will fall in the Hudson Valley on Sunday morning, mainly after 7 a.m., coating roads and sidewalks in the mid-to-late morning hours — as the umpteenth Arctic cold front of the season barrels through.

After a freezing but dry day on Monday, another storm will approach on Tuesday.

Read more

To that end, I’m issuing my first ever “Will there be a foot of snow in the Hudson Valley today?” forecast!

Here it is:

Thursday: No.

Friday: No.

Saturday: No.

Sunday: No.

Monday: No.

Tuesday: Probably not.

Wednesday: Probably not.

Hope that clears things up! Have a great day.

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But in all seriousness, I think it’s great that people are seeking out second or third opinions on the forecast and are trying to plan around and think ahead about the weather.

It’s true. There’s a chance for a little snow on Sunday morning and more early next week. I’d never say never, but the odds for huge storm bringing a foot of snow are quite low.

Enjoy the mild conditions on Saturday 😎