By now, you’ve almost certainly heard about El Niño, a warming of the ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is now nearing all-time record levels — considering records dating back to around 1850.

This will have a notable effect on the Hudson Valley’s weather from late fall through winter and spring, probably making it stormier.

But before we get to that, let’s take a quick look at the week ahead. It gets an “A” for awesome!

Monday: superb with low humidity and plenty of sunshine ☀️

Tuesday: mostly sunny and a bit warmer than Monday

Wednesday: warm with sun and increasing clouds and humidity; some rain possible at night

Thursday: warm and humid with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible

Friday: amazing weather — low humidity and wall-to-wall sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: looking good for now, warming up with a good deal of sunshine

Looking ahead to the week of September 14, it could be quite warm to start. Conditions look to generally lean drier than normal.

As for the weather through the end of the year…

Read more

Great, because as meteorological fall starts on Tuesday, it will instead feel more like summer 🙃

Mother Nature will deliver a tricky week of weather to the region, with escalating humidity and chances for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong-to-severe, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In a relatively rare, early move, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center highlighted the Hudson Valley as having atmospheric conditions that are particularly conducive to strong storms on Wednesday. That will be something to watch this week, as schools open their doors for a brand new year.

This pattern comes as a large dome of high pressure builds near the East Coast. The Hudson Valley will be near the northern edge of this high pressure zone, which is often where thunderstorms are found.

Thunderstorms, sunshine, or snow, I’ll help you stay one step ahead of the weather this school year!

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The week ahead

The week ahead will feature several chances for storms and elevated humidity, although conditions should improve by the weekend.

Monday: clouds thicken, chance for showers later on

Tuesday: noticeably more humid and warm with afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible — some strong

Wednesday: not quite as warm as Tuesday, but a similar chance for strong thunderstorms, especially later

Thursday: still muggy, but storm chances don’t look quite as high as prior days

Friday: a cold front may approach, bringing another chance for a shower or t-storm

Saturday-Sunday: decreasing humidity and increasing sunshine is the current gist of the forecast — but there still could be a chance for some isolated rain

Looking ahead to the week of September 7, conditions could start calm and comfortable, with a chance for some unsettled weather later. It will also be the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and there could be a few storms to watch.

The beauty of spring in a photo: A tui bird perches on a blooming cherry blossom tree in Auckland, a clear sign of a changing season.

Push off the branch and fly this school year! ✌️

Temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid-50s early Tuesday and Wednesday, typical of early September.

It only reached 90 degrees once or twice this month and there’s no such high heat on the horizon. It could still reach 90 again in September — and I do think it will heat up again — but the clock is ticking.

The region has also managed to dodge the worst of the flooding rainfall events that have plagued the country in recent weeks, thanks in part to extra atmospheric moisture flowing in from an El Niño-torched Pacific Ocean. I wrote about this in Sunday’s Washington Post; here’s a gift article.

Those downpours will eventually reach the Hudson Valley this fall, and I plan to dig into that topic a little more next month, when I release my thoughts on fall weather patterns to premium subscribers.

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The week ahead

The week ahead looks decent overall, with some rain chances here and there, especially on Thursday.

Monday: mainly sunny, but a brief sprinkle or shower can’t be ruled out

Tuesday: a cool start to the day, similar to Monday overall with a slight shower chance

Wednesday: another cool morning, plenty of sun

Thursday: humidity rises, as does the chance for showers and storms, mainly later

Friday: humid air lingers as stormy weather probably departs

Saturday-Sunday: it’s looking like a mostly dry weekend at this point

Looking ahead to the week of August 31, it could be rather warm and humid to start, with a chance for 90-degree-heat, followed by a cool down — maybe just in time for school to start?

In the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane season is nearing its peak, a tropical storm could form over the open ocean this week, but it currently looks unlikely to pose a long-term threat to the United States.

About 32 quadrillion miles away, there’s some interesting weather going on.

Interstellar winds are blowing the gas associated with the lobster nebula, a deep sky object that I was recently able to capture from New Zealand on a clear night. Apparently, it’s 70,000 degrees Fahrenheit in the center of that thing.

There won’t be an early taste of fall there!

But the Northeast? Things aren’t too bad around here.

We can’t possibly be done with 90-degree heat for the summer, can we?

Back in September 2015, the last time there was a super El Niño, it reach at least 90 degrees on six out of the first nine days of that month.

If history is a useful guide, then there’s more high heat coming this summer!

But not really this week. It will be muggy on a couple of days, but a more comfortable air mass will probably arrive by Friday.

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The week ahead

A stormy start and finish is possible in the Hudson Valley with some decent weather in the middle.

Monday: it’s going to be humid as morning clouds break for afternoon sun; there’s a chance for a PM shower or t-storm

Tuesday: warm with a good deal of sunshine

Wednesday: warmer yet and more humid, but probably remaining dry

Thursday: chance for a shower or t-storm as a front approaches

Friday: probably dry with lower humidity and sun

Saturday-Sunday: the weekend could come with rising chances for scattered showers and storms

Looking ahead to the week of August 24, it could be on the cooler and drier side for the time of year. Although the peak of hurricane season is just a few weeks away, the threat for storms continues to look lower than normal across the Atlantic.

That’s because extremely warm water associated with a record-breaking El Niño in the Pacific is focusing the storm action there — and harsh winds in the upper atmosphere that spread from the Pacific to the Atlantic are acting like a hedge trimmer for potential hurricanes.

Speaking of El Niño, I wrote a piece in the Washington Post this week that looked at what this extraordinary global event could mean for temperatures in 2027 — basically pushing them a decade ahead of the recent trend line, giving the world a preview of the late 2030s. Here’s a gift article if you want to check it out.

There is no modern precedent for an event of this scale and intensity and one of its many impacts will probably be frequent, strong storms near the U.S. East Coast starting in mid-to-late fall.

Time permitting, I’d like to provide some commentary on possible fall weather patterns in the Hudson Valley for premium subscribers at some point in the weeks ahead — so stay tuned!

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Why has it been so humid lately? The air mass overhead traveled from the Caribbean — specifically, Cuba — over the past 10 days. Here’s what that path looked like.

That muggy air is finally going to depart on Sunday afternoon.

These less humid conditions will come at the expense of more wildfire smoke this week. This weekend, 11 new fires have been reported in southern British Columbia, with their smoke filling the skies and spreading east.

You might notice a smoky haze on Monday, but especially Tuesday — and it may last into Wednesday. Fortunately, it will be lofted high in the sky and won’t cause poor quality.

Otherwise, temperatures don’t look too extreme for mid-August standards.

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The week ahead

The week ahead will generally feature more comfortable weather. A gusty storm could pass on Thursday with a cold front, followed by breezy conditions.

Monday: hottest day of the week with a PM t-storm possible

Tuesday: less humid as wildfire haze blows in from Canada

Wednesday: hazy sunshine with low humidity

Thursday: partly sunny with a gusty shower or t-storm possible as a cold front passes

Friday: nicer with low humidity; breezy

Saturday-Sunday: the forecast currently looks dry Saturday but chances for precipitation increase somewhat on Sunday

Looking ahead to the week of August 17, it could turn hotter but it doesn’t look especially humid. There could be more episodes of wildfire haze.

Sick of the humidity? Well, fall and winter aren’t that far off. Meteorological fall starts in just a few weeks on September 1.

A record-breaking El Niño threatens to bring some wild weather to the United States in the seasons ahead — and it looks particularly stormy along the East Coast, starting from around October onward. I’ll have more to share about this in the coming months, with premium subscribers receiving seasonal outlooks first and any new special features that may be coming this winter 😉

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Snow day in New Zealand

This week, it dropped to an icy 29 degrees at my house in New Zealand! But I searching for more than just frost. I needed to see some snow. So off to the central North Island my wife and I went, where three mountains — Ngaurahoe, Ruapehu, and Tongariro — stand tall and snow-capped.

Ngaurahoe, a volcanic cone reaching over 7,500 feet, is the most picturesque of the three.

It takes a little over four hours to drive from Auckland to this winter wonderland. The roads are twisty and sometimes challenging with relatively few straight zones.

But these views make it all worth it.

But that will soon change.

The week ahead will feature a brief spell of comfortable weather on Tuesday before the muggy meter gets turned up.

The Bermuda high pressure system, a summertime fixture in the central Atlantic Ocean, will become anchored near the East Coast — farther west than normal — bringing days of sultry conditions, especially from late Wednesday onward.

Factor in the region’s wet grounds and it’s basically going to turn into a jungle out there 🌴

Unsurprisingly, this pattern will also come with a daily chance for showers and storms as the high humidity fuels atmospheric instability.

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The week ahead

Well, Tuesday looks like a 10/10, but it’s all downhill from there!

Monday: morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm will clear to sunshine during the afternoon; becoming less humid

Tuesday: brilliant ☀️

Wednesday: there’s a chance for showers early in the day, with a mix of sun and clouds as well as increasing humidity otherwise

Thursday: it will feel like a jungle out there! 🌦️

Friday: similar to Thursday, but probably hotter 🌡️

Saturday-Sunday: early signs point to more of the same: warm and muggy with shower and storm chances 🔁

Looking ahead to the week of August 10, it looks to gradually turn less humid.

Wildfire smoke filling the sky

An explosive wildfire outbreak unfolded in eastern Washington near Spokane on Sunday, as yet more smoke filled the sky. This smoke will move into Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver on Monday and Tuesday, greatly reducing air quality there.

During July, 20 percent of the Northern Hemisphere’s land area — around 7.5 million square miles — was covered by moderate concentrations of wildfire smoke at some point. That includes the Hudson Valley and many other major population centers, both in North America and Europe.

You can read more about this serious situation in Sunday’s Washington Post, written by my colleagues and I. Here’s a gift article.

In some non-smoky and non-muggy news, my wife and I journeyed to the middle of the North Island this weekend in search of snow. We succeeded in our search and I’ll share some more photos soon!

Here’s one for now:

Thanks for reading and catch you next week. Stay 🆒

But awards are tough to win every week.

In the days ahead, the region will transition to a muggier, stormier — and potentially smokier — weather pattern.

Later Tuesday looks especially rough. I’m concerned about the potential for slow-moving storms and flooding, with areas of heavy rain probably lingering on Wednesday. A storm tracking southward from Canada is expected to stall near the region, with its progress impeded by a large area of high pressure forming near Greenland.

There’s also tons of smoke pouring from fires in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. This smoke is expected to reach the Hudson Valley later Sunday, with the potential for hazy skies. More smoke will probably arrive on Tuesday, although I’m not sure how much of it will be visible given the expectation for plenty of clouds. This smoke will be lofted high in the sky and I’m not currently expecting air quality to be affected.

After several unsettled days, conditions should improve by Friday. Saturday also looks decent for now. While our neck of the woods avoids scorching heat this week, the West and Plains will bake.

How does 125 degrees in Death Valley sound? Or 114 in Oklahoma?

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The week ahead

The weather this week won’t be the greatest, especially later Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday: an OK start to the week, but there could be a passing PM shower or storm

Tuesday: the weather will really go downhill as a storm arrives; be mindful of the risk of storms and flooding through the night

Wednesday: slow-moving showers and storms could again form over the region, especially in the afternoon

Thursday: the weather should start to improve, though there’s still a chance for lingering showers

Friday: increasing sunshine, still some isolated shower potential

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday currently looks good and Sunday could be mostly decent too — but there’s a chance for a shower/storm

Looking ahead to the week of August 3 (wow, August already?!), and it doesn’t look quite as unsettled as this week does. It could also turn hotter, but I’m not seeing any exceptional heat for now.

Late Saturday, satellite imagery captured this remarkable view of smoke plumes from numerous fires burning across Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia.

Hundreds of thousands of acres have already burned and there’s no rain in the forecast.

Wildfire haze could continue to waft across the Hudson Valley’s skies into August.

I’m not sure exactly what this summer has turned into, but a sequence of record-breaking heat, severe storms, flooding rainfall, horrendous wildfire smoke, and yet more storms is enough to make anyone’s head spin.

From a meteorological perspective, the last week has been about as busy as one with a winter storm or hurricane.

In the Hudson Valley, skies are clearer and cleaner this Sunday, but there’s still some smoke around. That should fully clear on Sunday afternoon.

Monday is looking pretty clear and it will be raining up on the Canadian fires. That’s the good news.

On Tuesday, more rain, possible storms, higher humidity and perhaps a touch of smoke are in the forecast. A rather strong summer cold front will blow through on Wednesday, with some lingering showers possible.

After that, the weather is going to turn magnificent during what’s typically the hottest time of the year. Some well-deserved good weather — as long as the smoke stays away.

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The week ahead

Aside from the period from Tuesday into Wednesday, the week ahead looks pretty solid — as long as smoke concentrations stay low.

Monday: wonderful

Tuesday: turning more humid with a risk for storms that bring heavy rain and gusty winds, mainly later

Wednesday: some lingering showers are possible as a cold front passes and the air turns less humid

Thursday: magnificent

Friday: nice again

Saturday-Sunday: at this point, odds favor a decent weekend, but this forecast is not set in stone

Looking ahead to the week of July 27, I’m seeing more of the same: A lack of sustained high heat with frequent wind flows from Canada. There could be more frequent showers and thunderstorms, but that would also help keep smoke concentrations low.

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This is what the sun looked like from my backyard on Sunday, with one little blemish (sunspot) in the center.

Interestingly, some people in wildfire smoke-affected areas of the Eastern U.S. were able to capture this very sunspot without any special camera equipment.

That’s because the smoke filtered out some of the sun’s intense glare, leaving behind a muted orange disk that revealed the sunspot.

Here’s hoping for more sun and less smoke this week!

The good news? This will probably be the last really bad wildfire smoke day in the Northeast for a little while.

The bad news? It’s going to be a bad wildfire smoke and thunderstorm day, and rain could leave behind specks of soot and ash on cars, windows, and other outdoor surfaces.

Early Saturday, New York City was the third most polluted major city in the world — behind D.C. and Toronto — and that acrid air was on its way toward the Hudson Valley.

The highest smoke concentrations are expected between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. in the region, when air quality index values could again surge into the unhealthy and very unhealthy ranges.

This will be coupled with the potential for gusty afternoon and evening thunderstorms, again bringing a risk for damaging winds to the Hudson Valley.

Beyond that already serious risk, the rain was also likely to bring down some soot and ash with it, which could appear as smudgy black marks on outdoor surfaces.

Not fun.

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By Saturday night, the rain should have washed most of the smoke out of the sky with the wind blowing the rest of it away. While a little more smoke could waft through on Sunday, concentrations look low — good news for the World Cup final.

Rain is expected in the main wildfire areas in western Ontario from Monday into Tuesday, helping to tamp down the fires and reducing their smoke outputs.

That should also reduce the chances for another really big outbreak of smoke around here — for now.

If you’re interested in reading more about why Canadian wildfire smoke has more frequently affected the U.S., I explored that complicated topic and much more in Saturday’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift article.

Here’s to clearer skies!

Alas, New York City had the 10th worst air quality of any major city in the world early Thursday. Topping the list were Detroit, Toronto, Minneapolis and Chicago. Air quality levels there were grim — in hazardous territory.

In the Hudson Valley, air quality was “moderate” early Thursday after a peak in the unhealthy range on Wednesday afternoon.

Unfortunately, another dense smoke plume is forecast to arrive Thursday afternoon and evening, probably causing air quality levels to worsen once again, with an unhealthy peak predicted around 3 p.m. or so. This smoke is expected to linger Thursday night.

But there is some good news.

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On Friday, smoke is predicted to blow away, south of the region. While it engulfs the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast and New England will probably get a break.

This break will be short-lived. Changing winds on Saturday will again blow the smoke north, with rain also helping to transfer some of it down toward the ground.

In other words, Saturday’s forecast is for rain with a side of smoke.

Farther north, some rain is expected across the Canadian wildfire areas on Friday and Monday, but it probably won’t be enough to put the fires out.

So I might be doing these smoke-casts for a while. If the smoke does indeed filter away from the Hudson Valley on Friday, I might not need to issue an update! 🤞

If you want to read more about what’s happening with the smoke, check out my story in Thursday’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift article.

And here’s a bonus chart for tracking smoke concentrations in different cities 🔎

You may have noticed hazy skies from the wildfire smoke on Tuesday. That was just the start.

About a dozen out-of-control wildfires in western Ontario, Canada and some in northern Minnesota are creating lots of wildfire smoke that will soon affect air quality in the Hudson Valley.

A smoke plume roughly parallel with Interstate 90 in New York early Wednesday morning was headed south.

It will probably reach the Hudson Valley by early Wednesday afternoon, potentially causing unhealthy air quality that will last into the night.

A second, more widespread and intense smoke plume is forecast to arrive in the region on Thursday afternoon.

That second plume could linger into Friday before changing winds on Saturday blow some of the smoke away and possible rain helps clear the air — at least temporarily.

In other words, get ready for several potentially unpleasant days. Prepare to limit your time outdoors, especially if you’re sensitive to the smoke.

In Michigan, where some of the worst smoke will be, the state environmental agency is advising residents to close their windows and run their air conditioners.

Stay safe and feel free to share your experiences and photos on Facebook!

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You can also check out my story about the smoke in Wednesday’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift article.

(PS, you may have to make an account to read it!)

Lots of sun, apparently!

Along with that sun, the week ahead looks seasonably hot but not too humid. So far, it has been less humid than last summer. I doubt you’re complaining.

A sprawling dome of high pressure will break records in the Rockies and Plains — exceeding a rare 110 degrees in Montana on Sunday — with some of that heat transiting through the Hudson Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. The region could eke out a heatwave if temperatures manage to climb above 90 on Thursday.

There are some signs that conditions could turn more unsettled toward the weekend, but it’s not a sure thing.

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The week ahead

Monday: plenty of sun, but a stray afternoon shower can’t be ruled out

Tuesday: sunny and hot 🌡️

Wednesday: sunny, breezy, and even hotter 🌡️🌡️

Thursday: remaining toasty, but not as hot as Wednesday 🌡️

Friday: temperatures step down slightly?

Saturday-Sunday: for now, showers and storms look possible with some sun

Looking ahead to the week of July 20, conditions don’t look particularly hot at this point and it could turn more unsettled.

In northern New Zealand, we’ve also been treated to lots of sun and clear nights recently. Those clear skies led to a frosty 30-degree morning on Sunday! Frosts are rare around here, with there being at most a few per year.

It has also been prime star-gazing weather.

Somewhere out there, 276 billion miles away (about the same as a Sunday’s drive 😉), is the cat’s paw nebula.

Located in the constellation Scorpius, this glowing, gaseous feature is marked by its resemblance to a cat’s paw!

At around midnight local time, its position in the sky was about 90 degrees above the horizon (straight up), making it a prime candidate for photographing without light pollution.

Hopefully Mother Nature keeps her claws tucked away this week 😸

After an extraordinary period of heat, especially on Thursday and Friday, Mother Nature set off some fireworks of her own on July 4, leaving thousands without power, especially in Ulster and Dutchess Counties.

Starting with the heat, an official high of 103 degrees at Dutchess County Airport on Thursday tied for the second-hottest day on record and the hottest day in 25 years (since August 2001). It was only the sixth time the temperature reached at least 103 degrees there since weather data collection started in 1931. The temperature then reached 101 degrees on Friday, with back-to-back 100-degree days for the first time since July 2010.

At 12 a.m. on Friday, it was 94 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City — the highest midnight temperature ever recorded in the city. But that remarkable heat wasn’t confined to the concrete jungle. It was 86 degrees at midnight in Montgomery — a record — and 81 in Monticello.

Elsewhere, it reached an exceptional 106 degrees in Atlantic City on Saturday. In D.C., it was 103 degrees while Baltimore sizzled at 104 degrees.

A cold front clashed with all that hot air, leading to severe thunderstorms that downed trees and power lines. That included a squall line of storms that passed through Ulster and Dutchess Counties, where 10 and 22 percent of customers were without power, respectively, early Sunday. Also, radar imagery showed a tornado-like signature passing near Pawling, New York just before 8 p.m. on Saturday.

As some area residents clean up and hopefully regain power on Sunday, what’s next?

Well, it’s not going to be 100 degrees this week, but there is a flood watch that starts at noon on Sunday and continues through Monday.

From Sunday afternoon through Monday, tropical moisture gliding northward will meet a front that’s stalled over the region. The interaction of these two features will lead to the formation of heavy and slow-moving blobs of rain. This will culminate in a flood risk, especially on Monday. While it’s uncertain exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, there’s a chance for flash flooding across the region.

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The week ahead

It’s looking a little turbulent this week. There aren’t many great weather days. Maybe next Sunday? But that’s a long way out to make promises.

Monday: periods of rain, some heavy, with a flood risk

Tuesday: rain continues

Wednesday: rain fades, but clouds remain for a long while, eventually clearing to sun later in the day

Thursday: probably the warmest day of the week with a shower or storm risk toward the end of the day

Friday: very muggy and warm with an atmosphere that looks primed for more showers and storms

Saturday-Sunday: at this point, Sunday has higher chances of being dry while a slight rain chance lingers for Saturday

Looking ahead to the week of July 13, signs are that extreme heat will sizzle the West.

In the Hudson Valley, the week will probably start dry, but typical afternoon shower and storm chances could return later in the week.

For now, I’m not seeing any strong signals for more 100-degree heat!

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Mammatus clouds visit Hudson Valley

These uncommon cloud formations were captured in Montgomery on Friday evening.

They often develop near thunderstorms and appear to hang from the base of a cloud. Their distinctive pouch-like shape forms when cooler, sinking air descends from the cloud, creating downward bulges.

People all across the Hudson Valley shared their cool cloud photos here.

Mother Nature is busy. Stay weather-aware out there! ✌️

Mother Nature has kindly waited until after graduation before turning up the thermostat.

And she’s about to turn it all the way up 🎚️

We’re talking triple digit heat in the Hudson Valley for the fifth time this century. It also reached or exceeded 100 at the weather station in Poughkeepsie during summer 2025, 2011, 2010 and 2001. It happens once every six years, on average.

In summer of 1933, during the dust bowl, it happened seven times! That year, it also reached 104 on August 1, which still stands as the region’s highest temperature on record.

I don’t think we’re going to officially reach 104 this week in the Hudson Valley, but maybe your car thermometer will! The heat looks downright ridiculous later this week, when both New York and D.C. could challenge their all-time temperature records of 106. Considering humidity, it will feel more like 115 degrees in those places.

With cooler than average conditions in the West this week, the Northeast will be the hottest corner of the country in a rare feat.

These record temperatures are being caused by a powerful high pressure system, also called a heat dome, which is like an atmospheric force field, deflecting storms and compressing the air underneath it, which causes further warming.

A similar pattern brought remarkable heat and humidity to Europe this past week, where it reached 112 degrees in France and parts of the United Kingdom experienced record-high humidity.

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The week ahead

This forecast speaks for itself. I hope your air conditioner is functioning!

Monday: the ‘coolest’ day of the week!

Tuesday: heat and humidity starts to creep up, chance for a passing shower or storm

Wednesday: blast off! 🚀

Thursday: record-breaking heat 🔥

Friday: two days of triple digit heat in a row? 🔥 ⚡

Saturday-Sunday: muggy and still hot, but daily shower and storm chances rise

Looking ahead to the week of July 6, it still looks toasty, but it probably won’t be quite as hot as this week as the core of the heat is predicted to shift west.

I took this photo of the sun on Sunday in New Zealand. I think it captures the essence of the expected conditions in the Hudson Valley this week!

See the black dots? Those are sunspots. The larger cluster of sunspots to the upper right of the sun are unfathomably large, spanning about 1.34 billion square miles across.

That’s equivalent to the surface area of nearly seven Earths 🤯

At least it won’t be quite as hot as the 10,000-degree surface of the sun in the Hudson Valley this week! ✌️

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Second only to: Will there be a snow day tomorrow?

So, will your school’s graduation be outside this year? Or will a renegade thunderstorm threat force it indoors?

Well, if your graduation happens to be on Wednesday, you’re in luck. Because there’s a 100 percent chance that the weather will cooperate for outdoor graduations.

A slam dunk forecast.

But as we head toward the weekend, the forecast becomes less of a slam dunk and more of a three-point shot. Let’s break it down.

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Thursday

Graduation in the morning? Great. It’s looking dry. But during the afternoon, scattered showers may start to pop up across the region. The steadiest stuff will probably hold off until nighttime, though.

I’d peg the outdoor graduation chances at 70 to 80 percent.

Friday

It’s looking like steady rain should depart early Friday morning, setting the region up for a mostly dry day. Given the humid, sticky air, I can’t rule out a passing shower at any time — but I think that would be the exception, not the rule.

It’s looking like an 80 to 90 percent chance for outdoor graduations.

Saturday

Saturday’s forecast is tricky.

A rain band could graze the region or pass by to the south.

If it grazes the region, that could unfortunately spell indoor graduations.

Outdoor graduations have about a 50/50 chance at this point.

Stay tuned!

Sunday

Sunday is looking pretty good at this point. The day should start dry with a good amount of sunshine.

There might be some isolated showers during the afternoon, but probably not enough to derail outdoor graduations.

I’d give outdoor graduations an 80 to 90 percent chance.

There’s a lot going on. I’m bracing myself for dozens of forecast requests this week.

Sunday marks the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, when the sun shines directly above the Tropic of Cancer at noon, concluding its long trek north since the winter solstice. It’s also the day of the year with the most daylight hours, amounting to about 15 hours and 11 minutes in the Hudson Valley.

Enjoy every second! Because it won’t be as nice on Monday.

Here’s what daylight hours look like across the planet.

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The week ahead

There’s will be some good and some bad weather this week. It’s too bad all the graduations and parties couldn’t just happen on Wednesday, which confidently looks really good.

The highest chances for precipitation are on Monday and Friday, with moderate chances on Tuesday morning and relatively low chances on Thursday evening.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the weather for next weekend, but keeping an eye on it in case of changes.

Keep an eye on Facebook for graduation weather updates.

Monday: rainy weather arrives by late morning with a rumble of thunder possible

Tuesday: some rain and drizzle possible during the morning, then clouds give way to sun in the afternoon

Wednesday: the best weather of the week! 🌟

Thursday: another nice day, warm — mostly — a late-day shower or storm can’t be ruled out

Friday: a front will likely bring more humidity as well as showers and thunderstorms

Saturday-Sunday: the weekend weather is currently looking OK, but it’s not set in stone

Looking ahead to the week of June 29, there are signs that it could heat up as high pressure builds.

Celestial happenings

In New Zealand, clear skies this past week allowed for splendid views of the Venus-Jupiter-moon conjunction. They formed a celestial triangle during twilight.

Zooming in on Jupiter, which is currently 570 million miles away from Earth, reveals four of its at least 115 moons.

They appear as tiny specks of light amid the dark abyss.

The average temperature on Jupiter is minus 166 degrees. There must be a lot of two hour delays for frigid temperatures there.

Back on planet Earth, it’s happy summer! ✌️

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After some high heat on Sunday, no 90-degree temperatures are expected in the Hudson Valley during the week ahead.

A cold front, towing some gusty thunderstorms, will cross the region on Sunday evening, setting the stage for some glorious conditions on Monday and Tuesday — prepare to open the windows wide!

Another cold front on Thursday will usher yet more comfortable conditions by Friday, with unusually low humidity into next weekend.

It’s about as close as it can get to ‘polar vortex weather’ in June! But there will be no snow days, nor heat days — mostly just nice days.

Notice the blue colors in the animation below, which indicate below-average temperatures favoring the eastern United States over the next two weeks.

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The week ahead

A few days this week might have you saying “I wish every day could be like this.”

The astronomical summer season arrives on Sunday, June 21.

Monday: weather rating is a 9 out of 10! A bit breezy 🌬️

Tuesday: like Monday, but just a few degrees warmer and less wind

Wednesday: more clouds roll in, chances for PM showers and storms increase

Thursday: a cold front will sweep across the region, probably bringing several showers and the potential for gusty thunderstorms as well as muggy conditions

Friday: refreshing conditions and sunshine returns

Saturday-Sunday: the early outlook is for a pretty nice weekend

Looking ahead to the week of June 22, the first full week of astronomical summer, there are more signs that persistent high heat will avoid the Hudson Valley.

That’s consistent with my Hudson Valley summer outlook. Summers that feature El Niño conditions typically start with relatively cooler temperatures during June, then come with hotter July weather.

Speaking of vortices, check out this one that I captured in the dark New Zealand skies this past week. It’s called the southern pinwheel galaxy, located about 15 million light years from Earth. Apparently, temperatures there can reach 12 million degrees Fahrenheit.

I hope they have some powerful air conditioners!

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If you’re up for some additional reading, here are two articles I wrote for The Washington Post this week.

• A mysterious blob of cold water in the North Atlantic is defying the odds on a warming planet [gift article]

• It’s winter in Lima, Peru, but the weather just keeps getting warmer [gift article]

There were strong and locally damaging thunderstorms in the region on Saturday. A heat wave is probably coming this week. More humidity is on the way too.

I think it’s safe to say that summer is well and truly arriving in the Hudson Valley!

Wall-to-wall sunshine and pleasant warmth on Monday will be followed by progressively hotter conditions.

The region will hardly be alone in dealing with the heat. Across the country, some 140 million people can expect temperatures in the 90s this week with 100-degree heat for around 20 million more.

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The week ahead

It’s going to be a toasty week in the Hudson Valley with increasing humidity and more thunderstorms possible.

Monday: the pick weather day of the week with abundant sunshine and comfortable warmth ⭐

Tuesday: noticeably warmer than Monday, but humidity will remain low

Wednesday: turning hotter and muggier with a shower or thunderstorm chance later in the day

Thursday: another steamy one with a shower or storm chance later on

Friday: probably the most sultry day of the week with the potential for a strong storm as a front blows through later 🔥

Saturday-Sunday: right now, I’m favoring decent weekend weather with lower humidity, at least on Saturday — but keep an eye on the forecast in case of changes

Looking ahead to the week of June 15, there are some signs that the weather may shift in a more unsettled direction.

Stay 🆒 this week ✌️

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The first week of June will come with progressively warmer temperatures and ample sunshine in the Hudson Valley — swinging from the upper 30s on Sunday morning to around 90 by Friday.

Humidity levels will be low — at least until the weekend — which fits the pattern of fewer high heat extremes in early summer during developing super El Niño events. If you’re wondering what the rest of summer may bring, check out my recently published Hudson Valley summer outlook.

The week ahead

It will be a pretty solid start to June, weather-wise.

Monday: sunshine and comfortable temperatures could come with a stray afternoon or evening shower for some

Tuesday: plenty of sunshine as comfy temperatures continue

Wednesday: warmer with abundant sunshine

Thursday: like Wednesday, but warmer

Friday: hot with sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: an approaching front on Saturday could bring moderate humidity and a chance for a shower or storm, which may continue into Sunday

Looking ahead to the week of June 8, the chances for a heat wave appear low for now and it could turn wetter.

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Greetings from…

Melbourne, Australia! This week, my newsletter comes to you from the land down under.

As meteorological winter arrives in the Southern Hemisphere, this city of over 5 million people has been experiencing high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

It’s a fun place to spend a long weekend and is a bit more lively than Auckland, which seems to have a perpetual bedtime of around 6 p.m. 😁

Happy meteorological summer (and winter)!

First, a quick forecast for the week ahead, then we’ll get into it.

A high temperature of 97 degrees last Tuesday. Steady rain with temperatures in the 40s early Sunday. What a roller coaster. The week ahead will be less dramatic.

After a few days with high temperatures in the 80s, an air mass from Canada will usher cooler conditions, especially next weekend. This should also result in minimal rainfall and low humidity levels — with the meteorological summer season little more than a week away.

Monday: rain during the morning, then drying out in the afternoon

Tuesday: warming up with highs in the lower 80s

Wednesday: probably be the warmest day of the week — reaching the mid to upper 80s — before a late-day cold front brings a chance for a passing shower or thunderstorm

Thursday: comfortably warm, stray shower can’t be ruled out

Friday: similar to Thursday, nice

Saturday-Sunday: another cold front will probably cause rather cool conditions for the time of year, especially at night; at this point, a passing shower or two can’t be ruled out, but I don’t think it will define the weekend

Looking ahead to the week of June 1, temperatures look quite comfortable for the time of year as humidity remains low.

Now, to the summer outlook.

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