Temperatures are typically on the rise this time of the year. But we’re going backwards this week: It will be near 70 to start and in the 50s by the end. Nighttime temperatures will dip into the 30s.

I know, that’s probably not what you want to hear.

The coming cool weather is actually the last vestige of the polar vortex pattern that brought a rather cold and snowy winter to the region. And gusty winds won’t make it feel any warmer.

It could even snow in the mountains of the Northeast next weekend.

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The week ahead

Mother Nature is having a tough time gaining traction toward sustained warmer weather.

Monday: the pick day of the week 🥇

Tuesday: some morning sun giving way to clouds; slight chance for an evening shower

Wednesday: not terrible; clouds increasing as rain approaches late

Thursday: a cool, dreary one with morning rain probably ending; turning windy

Friday: windy and cooler with clouds and sun

Saturday-Sunday: if cool mornings, afternoons in the 50s and gusty winds are your thing, then next weekend might just be for you

Looking ahead to the week of May 4, there may be a few warmer days followed by more cool ones — but I’m not seeing any big heat coming anytime soon.

If you’re interested in some additional reading, check out my piece in this week’s Washington Post about a 5,000-mile marine heat wave that could really crank up the temperatures in the West this summer. Here’s a gift link.

Before you go and enjoy this week’s lovely weather, take a virtual trip to some of the bluest water you might just ever see, in New Zealand’s North Island.

It’s called the blue spring. The water temperature is in the low 50s. It’s so blue because it takes 50 to 100 years to emerge in this spring from the mountains, where most particulate matter is removed, leaving behind water of the highest optical purity.

Keep moving forward this week ✌️

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It reached 90 degrees in parts of the Hudson Valley on Thursday during a four-day stretch with temperatures reaching 80 or higher.

And now, well, even a stray flurry can’t be ruled out in the days ahead as an Alaska-sourced chill arrives in the region.

Weather swings are normal during spring, but a change of almost 70 degrees in a matter of days is next-level stuff. Especially for your temperature-sensitive plants!

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The week ahead

The week ahead will deliver a dose of the realities of spring to the Hudson Valley.

Monday: cool with isolated showers and maybe even a flurry!

Tuesday: near-record low morning temperatures; sun to start, then some more clouds arrive

Wednesday: a few showers possible, mainly early; otherwise, clouds limiting sun

Thursday: warmer with a mix of clouds and sun

Friday: it could turn out decent — if the rain holds off, which is currently uncertain

Saturday-Sunday: more clouds and increasing chances for some rain, but amounts and timing are currently uncertain

Looking ahead to the week of April 27, more unseasonably cool air may drift toward the region. Summer-like warmth looks like it’s a long way away.

For a little more reading about the coming chill, check out my story in this week’s Washington Post: Some states will go from record heat to a freeze — thanks to Alaska.

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Hold on tight for Mother Nature’s wild ride ✌️

Last Wednesday, it dropped to 19 degrees in Montgomery.

Temperatures will soar well into the 80s just a week later. And on Thursday, it will be near 90 degrees. That’s more like June or July.

That’s the type of variability that spring is known for, but a 70-degree temperature swing is more like whiplash.

It will feel like summer up and down the East Coast this week as a big ridge of high-pressure flexes its muscles and sends sultry air northward.

Here’s a shocker: It won’t last.

Much cooler air from Canada will sweep in late next weekend or to start the week of April 20.

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The week ahead

It will feel summer at times this week in the Hudson Valley. Occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm will add to the vibe 🌦️

Monday: warm, but plenty of clouds with isolated afternoon showers

Tuesday: temperatures reach the 80s under clouds and sun; chance for a PM shower or storm

Wednesday: very warm with a tinge of humidity, perhaps a heavy PM shower or thunderstorm

Thursday: hot with clouds and sun 🌡️

Friday: not as hot with some sunshine

Saturday-Sunday: still warm Saturday; cold front approaches Sunday, bringing a chance for a shower or storm and falling temperatures, though its timing is uncertain for now

Looking ahead to the week of April 20, conditions look rather cool to start the week, followed by a return to warmer weather after that. It also looks drier than normal.

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I can’t promise sunsets like these in your neck of the woods, but I can promise a much warmer week. Enjoy it ✌️

I’m monitoring the potential for some passing wet snow showers late Monday night, which will be followed by freezing temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

I know that’s just the news you want to hear on April 5.

Fear not, as it should mark the last snow chance of the season — and much warmer temperatures are within reach.

This is my 700th weekly newsletter. I’ve been issuing them for the last 13.5 years — which takes us back to 2012 — rarely missing a week. Back in the day, I used to maintain an email list in a word document and manually paste hundreds of emails into the “to” field. That’s not exactly glamorous, but persistence pays.

Looking even further back, I can locate chronicles of every winter weather event in the Hudson Valley that I kept in 2009. The 2026 me is impressed with the 2009 version’s detail. Apparently February 2010 featured back-to-back-to-back snow days!

The approximate birth year of my snow day predictions is 2004.

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Now back to 2026 for this week’s forecast.

The week ahead

The week ahead will bring some serious temperature swings and more wind, but at least there will be sun most days.

Monday: a rather cool, breezy start to the week with a chance for wet snow showers late at night

Tuesday: chilly and windy with some sun; freezing at night

Wednesday: a frosty start with abundant sunshine

Thursday: warming up with sun and a breeze

Friday: breezy and much warmer

Saturday-Sunday: at this point, the weekend looks alright — a front could pass Saturday, but the weather may not change much

Looking ahead to the week of April 13, it looks rather warm to start. I’d hold off on planting stuff at this point because of continued frost risks, but I think we’re close to turning a corner, temperature-wise 📈

If you’re interested in some additional weather reading, here are two of my stories in The Post this week:

• See where flowers and leaves are emerging early after record-warm March

• What are triplet cyclones? This rare phenomenon could have global impacts.

Talk to you next week in newsletter #701 ✌️

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A collection of clouds, fronts, and drastic temperature changes throughout the week look relatively undesirable.

Don’t be fooled by a fleeting period of early week sunshine. It won’t stick around.

The ‘best’ weather of the week will be at the start — and I use the word best loosely. Showery conditions should at least make emerging leaves and plants happy.

It’s not a bad week to be on spring break… in Florida or California 😎

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The week ahead

No day will be quite like the previous one this week.

We’ve reached the time of year when forecasts are more susceptible to changes. There are more sluggish fronts nearby — and whether fronts pass or stall determine if it will be warm or cool. That is challenging to pinpoint days in advance.

Monday: not a bad start to the week with mild temperatures and some sun

Tuesday: a warm front passing through the area during the morning could bring a heavy shower or thunderstorm; drying out and warming up after that

Wednesday: warmth hanging on at first… but it will be erased by a cold front that will bring showers, probably by afternoon

Thursday: much cooler and dreary

Friday: another front approaches, keeping showers in the forecast

Saturday-Sunday: a relatively cool but dry (?) start to the weekend looks possible, then yet another front could approach on Sunday 🤷‍♂️

Looking ahead to the week of April 7, conditions look cool to start. I’m not betting on more snow, but I’ve seen stranger things!

Hope your week isn’t blah! ✌️

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It won’t be 70 and sunny every day — sorry — but it could be worse this time of the year. Plus, old Man Winter appears to be on his last legs.

You could be sweltering in 112-degree heat in Arizona and California, where new March national temperature records were set on Friday, or you could be in Juneau, Alaska, where it’s snowed almost every day of the month.

Suddenly, the milder climes of the Hudson Valley don’t sound so bad.

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The week ahead

The week ahead will have plenty of wind, a solid dose of sun, and a pinch of rain in the Hudson Valley.

Monday: after rain on Sunday night, it will clear out, but it will be blustery and there could be a passing afternoon shower

Tuesday: a cold, frosty morning followed by a pleasant afternoon

Wednesday: turning windy again with more clouds than sun; a touch of rain possible at night

Thursday: mild with some sun; a soaking rain possible at night

Friday: lingering rain possible early; strong winds usher clearing skies and a cooler air mass

Saturday-Sunday: a chilly start to the weekend finishes milder; probably dry

Looking ahead to the week of March 30, conditions could turn rather warm around the start of April. Some of the hot air that has been baking the West will migrate eastward.

For a little extra reading about that, check out my story in this week’s Washington Post about the new national March temperature record.

Out west, Mother Nature skipped straight to July, but in the Hudson Valley, the weather has been following a more typical March script.

I think this proverb will be proven accurate this month, which has featured temperatures as high as 80 and as low as 12 in the Hudson Valley.

Next up: Ripping winds on Monday followed by another big temperature swing and a transition to more settled conditions.

The Hudson Valley will miss the severe weather outbreak that’s expected to bring tornadoes and damaging winds to the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, but several rumbles of thunder are possible locally. The day will be capped off by a period of heavy evening rain and wind before temperatures nosedive overnight.

After that, things finally turn a little more normal around here.

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The week ahead

After a tumultuous start to the week, the weather will turn tamer.

Monday: warm and even a bit humid with showers, storms, and strong winds

Tuesday: windy and much cooler

Wednesday: cool, tranquil

Thursday: a little milder than Wednesday; a passing rain or snow shower can’t be ruled out

Friday: turning milder yet; a passing shower can’t be ruled out

Saturday-Sunday: a front could cross the region on Saturday, bringing a chance for rain before conditions turn cooler on Sunday

The week of March 23 looks rather chilly to start in the Hudson Valley. An unprecedented March heat wave in the West — bringing 110-degree heat — probably won’t reach the East in any meaningful capacity.

Cold spells will likely continue through the end of the month, though it does look drier than normal. Lingering snow day chances this season appear to be dwindling.

Hope your week is like a lamb ✌️

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S***

Not even an 80-degree day could scare it away. But it will make it harder for snow to stick!

The temperature will drop from 70 to 40 on Wednesday night as a strong cold front rips across the Hudson Valley.

By late Thursday morning, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and the atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow.

Any snow at that point will melt on contact.

But during the mid-to-late afternoon hours, perhaps coinciding with the commute, there’s a chance for a period of steadier snow in the Hudson Valley.

It’s not locked in, but it could bring a light accumulation to grass and car tops — and in a worse case scenario, a little slush on the roads.

Because of the tenuous nature of the event, I hesitate to issue these percentages, but alas, I must say there’s a 1-in-5 chance for early dismissals on Thursday — mainly in the Catskills where it will be colder and in mountainous areas east of the Hudson River, such as eastern Dutchess County, where it will be colder and snow could fall harder.

Even in those places it might not — and probably won’t — amount to much, but it always pays to be aware of the possibility.

A little more snow could reach the region on Friday afternoon and again Sunday, but impacts, if any, look minimal 🙃

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The Hudson Valley might just get that early this week. With plentiful sunshine on Monday and Tuesday and gusty-but-warm southwesterly winds, I’m taking the ‘over’ on temperatures. Wednesday looks warm too, but there will be more clouds.

Don’t get used to it.

By Thursday, it’s back to reality and the bumpy road that is March. I’m talking about the weather, not the potholes!

There’s even a chance that rain changes to wet snow when a strong cold front crosses the region on Thursday. And we’ll have to watch Sunday too.

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The week ahead

The week ahead typifies March, with temperatures swinging around 50 degrees from the 70s to the 20s and blustery conditions.

Monday: sunny and warm; could be the region’s first 70-degree day since October 19

Tuesday: even warmer than Monday; a high in the mid-70s would be record-breaking and is more typical of late May or early June

Wednesday: warm again, but turning cloudier as a front approaches; chance for some afternoon or evening showers

Thursday: a strong cold front will cause temperatures to nosedive; expect some rain, possibly changing to wet snow❓

Friday: probably a dry, windy, and cool day

Saturday-Sunday: the weekend outlook is somewhat uncertain, although Saturday seems more likely to be dry than Sunday when another storm could approach

The week of March 16 looks to turn considerably colder, a reminder that winter isn’t technically over.

Don’t put away that shovel just yet!

I’ll get back in touch in case of any escalating wintry weather this week. If not, soak up the sun! 😎

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This won’t be a big storm, but even a little ice can cause issues out there.

It’s looking like a close call between closings and early dismissals, but given an expected storm arrival time of late morning for most of the Hudson Valley, I lean in the direction of closings.

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With a cold air mass from Canada overhead, freezing temperatures on Monday, and temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 on Tuesday morning when precipitation arrives, snow and ice should have no trouble sticking, creating slippery roads.

Timing

Snow will start between 9 a.m. and noon on Tuesday from south to north, before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain in the afternoon.

Amounts

Up to an inch or two of snow followed by a glaze of ice, with the highest amounts along and north of I-84.

Impacts

Roads will become snow-coated and slippery by midday Tuesday with slippery conditions lingering into the evening commute.

School closings are more likely than early dismissals because the latter risks a dismissal into the developing storm.

Here’s an excerpt from my story in Monday’s Washington Post.

Stay safe!

It hasn’t reached the 60s in the Hudson Valley since early November. It’s been a long, harsh winter, but there’s some light at the end of this tunnel — as meteorological spring begins on Sunday.

But first (you knew there had to be a but), we’ll have to deal with Tuesday.

A no good, icy mix will probably cause messy roads and yet more school disruptions.

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Timing

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain starting late Tuesday morning.

Amounts

A few inches of snow are possible, followed by a glaze of ice.

Impacts

School closings or early dismissals are about equally likely at this point. As the start time of the storm becomes clearer over the next day, it will become clearer which option is best.

Roads will become snow-covered and slippery by Tuesday afternoon, lingering into the evening commute.

The week ahead

It will be a contrasting week of weather in the Hudson Valley, with winter cold to start and milder spring air to finish. Temperature forecasts look extra challenging this week, as several weather systems bring clouds, rain, and shifting winds that could cause a day that’s forecast to reach the 50s fail to make it out of the 40s.

Be prepared for some forecast shifts.

Monday: very cold but sunny

Tuesday: wintry mix arriving, slippery PM commute

Wednesday: clouds giving way to some sun, milder

Thursday: plenty of clouds with a chance for showers or rain

Friday: dreary with rain possible, especially early

Saturday-Sunday: warming up, but it’s uncertain just how warm it will get 📈 ❓

Looking ahead to the week of March 9, conditions look very mild to start, with 60s and even 70s possible.

A mid-month cool down looks possible after that.

I have a feeling we’re not quite done with Old Man Winter just yet, but he’s going to soon give us a nice break.

I’ll have another update on Monday morning about the Tuesday situation.

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If you’re up for some more reading, you can check out my recap of this memorable winter season in today’s Washington Post. Here’s a gift link to the article.

Our reply: Haven’t we suffered enough this winter?! 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♀️

Less than an inch of snow will fall in the Hudson Valley on Sunday morning, mainly after 7 a.m., coating roads and sidewalks in the mid-to-late morning hours — as the umpteenth Arctic cold front of the season barrels through.

After a freezing but dry day on Monday, another storm will approach on Tuesday.

Read more

To that end, I’m issuing my first ever “Will there be a foot of snow in the Hudson Valley today?” forecast!

Here it is:

Thursday: No.

Friday: No.

Saturday: No.

Sunday: No.

Monday: No.

Tuesday: Probably not.

Wednesday: Probably not.

Hope that clears things up! Have a great day.

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But in all seriousness, I think it’s great that people are seeking out second or third opinions on the forecast and are trying to plan around and think ahead about the weather.

It’s true. There’s a chance for a little snow on Sunday morning and more early next week. I’d never say never, but the odds for huge storm bringing a foot of snow are quite low.

Enjoy the mild conditions on Saturday 😎

Sorry to burst your bubble, but today is not that day.

There’s a high chance for school delays all across the Hudson Valley and Catskills on Wednesday morning as a clipper system races through, bringing a few inches of snow that will coincide with the morning commute.

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Timing

Snow starting between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. Wednesday, ending between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m.

Amounts

Snowfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected.

Impacts

Snow will fall at a decent clip for few hours — perhaps reaching a half inch per hour — covering roads and sidewalks. Temperatures will be in the teens or 20s, so it should have no trouble sticking. Because of the timing, school delays are very likely. Three hour delays may be necessary.

Road conditions look particularly slick between about 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Wednesday. It would be wise to delay your travel if you can.

There’s also some chance for closings, mainly for districts east of the Hudson River where snow will linger the longest.

Another potential storm later Thursday has been downtrending. With any luck, it will pass to the south of the Hudson Valley and this will be the last time you’ll hear from me until next Sunday 🤞

📸 Thanks to Harjas Singh for the snowman header photo!

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Blizzard warnings are now in effect for the first time in years for Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and Westchester Counties as the big storm closes in.

I’m increasing my forecast snowfall range to 10 to 15 inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches across the Hudson Valley.

That’s a little lower than some other forecasts, but it will depend on whether or not the region gets into this storm’s heaviest snow bands.

The storm’s heaviest snow bands will definitely hit parts of southern New England, where up to two feet of snow will fall. Towering snow drifts of three to five feet will also form, driven by 50 to 70 mph wind gusts near the coast.

Snow will fall on Sunday across the Hudson Valley, but roads should remain mostly wet because of marginal temperatures in the lower 30s. The storm’s worst won’t arrive until this evening and overnight, from around 7 p.m. onward.

From that point, snow rates could reach over an inch per hour at times, continuing into Monday afternoon before ending. The snow will also turn more powdery on Sunday night, helping it to pile up.

Winds will howl early Monday as the storm rapidly intensifies offshore, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph blowing and drifting snow as well as greatly reducing visibility — and bringing a chance for sporadic power outages. Avoid traveling if you can.

You don’t need me to tell you that there’s going to be a snow day on Monday. This one is pretty obvious 😉

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The week ahead

After the blizzard, more snow is likely on Wednesday morning, followed by the potential for a wintry mix later Thursday. Remember, I’m just the messenger 🙈

But hey, it could reach 50 degrees next weekend!

Monday: blizzard conditions early, snow ending in the afternoon

Tuesday: cold and breezy

Wednesday: snow likely during the morning; school disruptions possible

Thursday: potential for a wintry mix later in the day

Friday: skies gradually clearing

Saturday-Sunday: turning milder?! 🤞

Looking ahead to the week of March 2, conditions look rather cold to start with the potential for another storm.

There are some signs for well deserved mild air in March. Think spring!

Let’s just cut to the chase: there’s going to be a whole bunch of snow and you’re not going to have school on Monday. Cool? 🙃

Cool.

For the first time in four years, blizzard warnings line the coasts of the Northeast — that even includes southern Westchester County.

This storm has been tricky. It’s going to be well offshore, no it’s getting closer; oh wait, now it’s a stone’s throw away.

I don’t think the tricks are done quite yet. Because of that, the forecast snowfall range below may be a little wider than you are used to seeing.

Timing

It shouldn’t be that bad on Sunday. Light snow will probably bring an inch or so of accumulation during the day.

But by evening, conditions will start to deteriorate. That’s when snow will turn steadier and heavier, continuing through at least Monday morning.

The storm should pull away on Monday afternoon.

Amounts

Because a relatively small 50- to 100-mile shift in storm track could make a big difference in snowfall, I think a wide forecast snowfall range is reasonable and prudent for this storm.

I’m going with 7 to 14 inches of windswept snow by Monday afternoon.

The snow should be of a wetter consistency, making it good for snowmen and snowballs.

Impacts

You know the deal: widespread travel disruptions, school closings, massive snow piles, and more potholes.

The worst of the storm looks to be Sunday night and Monday morning, including the commute — avoid driving if you can.

Things should start getting back to normal by Tuesday.

Whew. I’ll have another update tomorrow! Maybe it will trend back offshore.

(probably not!)

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If you want to read about the full fury of this storm and all the places it will hit, here’s a gift link to my article in today’s Washington Post.

Friday’s storm won’t be prolific, but its arrival will be perfectly aligned with the morning commute in the Hudson Valley, likely leading to school delays and closings.

Although it won’t be big, it should be taken seriously, as a mix of snow and ice during peak morning travel could lead to issues on the roads.

The National Weather Service has yet to issue a Winter Weather Advisory, but they mentioned in their forecast discussion that one may be necessary.

Timing

Starting between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. on Friday morning from south to north.

Amounts

A coating to an inch or two of snow and sleet and a glaze of ice, with the highest amounts near the Catskills where temperatures will remain below freezing the longest.

In the Hudson Valley, wintry precipitation should transition to plain rain or drizzle on Friday afternoon.

Impacts

Because of recent milder temperatures, the impact of this event remains a bit uncertain. Temperatures will be hovering near or just below freezing as wintry precipitation begins during Friday’s morning commute — which isn’t a great combination.

That should cause roads and sidewalks to abruptly slicken up. If you can, consider delaying your travel until the afternoon.

Despite the borderline nature of this event, the combination of snow, ice, and disruptive timing means that school closings are likely — especially north of I-84 where the wintry mix will linger longest. Schools may initially opt for delays to allow more time to determine whether a snow/ice day is the best call.

This will be the final update for this storm. Stay safe!

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Sunday-Monday storm

The Hudson Valley will likely find itself near the northern edge of a strong nor’easter from late Sunday into Monday.

This could mean that there will be a glancing blow of snow or that the storm misses the region. A direct hit remains least likely.

For more info on this storm and which areas could be hardest hit, check out my article in today’s Washington Post.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will affect the Hudson Valley and Catskills on Friday, causing slippery conditions.

It won’t be the biggest storm, but it may be enough to cause school disruptions.

Timing

Starting between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. on Friday morning from south to north.

Amounts

A coating to an inch or two of snow followed by a glaze of ice, with the highest amounts near the Catskills.

Impacts

Because of recent milder temperatures, the impact of this event is a bit uncertain. Temperatures will be hovering near freezing as wintry precipitation begins around the morning commute on Friday — which isn’t a great recipe.

That should cause roads and sidewalks to slicken up.

Based on current information and the borderline nature of this event, I tend to lean toward initial school delays on Friday, giving districts a little more time to decide on whether or not to call a snow/ice day.

Other storms

Be mindful of the chance for freezing drizzle on Wednesday night across the Hudson Valley. After plain rain Wednesday, temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight, with the potential for locally icy conditions. Because of this, there is a low-end chance for delays on Thursday.

Forecasts for another, more powerful storm from Sunday into Monday are still coming into focus, though outlooks are generally favoring a storm that tracks south and east of the Hudson Valley. This means that a direct hit is looking less likely, but the region could still be grazed by snow.

More to come!

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I’m watching two storms that could affect the Hudson Valley in the days ahead: one on Friday and another from Sunday into Monday.

While forecast details will be ironed out in the days ahead, here’s what’s known about these storm threats:

Friday

A storm on Friday could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the Hudson Valley. Although it doesn’t look like a particularly big storm and temperatures will be borderline, it may be just enough to cause school closings for schools that are in session this week.

Sunday-Monday

This storm’s exact track is uncertain for now, but one possibility is the formation of a powerful coastal storm from Sunday into Monday. If that were to occur, significant snow and wind could hit the Northeast, including the Hudson Valley.

Additional updates to come!

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