Bye July, hi August
Update #560
Greetings! 👋
It was an exceedingly wet July across the Hudson Valley, with Poughkeepsie observing its 4th-wettest July on record. Some places to the west of the river observed double the amount that Poughkeepsie did!
It was fueled by a jet stream pattern that featured a dip over the east-central states, which frequently dredged up tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic — both exhibiting marine heatwave conditions.
Does a not-so-dry July imply that August will be awesome, weather-wise?
I decided to look back at the three Julys that were wetter than July 2023 in Poughkeepsie to see what happened in those Augusts.
Two out of the three had below normal rainfall and one had near normal rainfall. Based on this alone, the odds would be in a favor of a month with more sun and less rain!
If only forecasting were that simple. Mother Nature does like balance, but weather is certainly not linear!
Premium subscribers will get an overview of the expected mid-to-late August patterns later on in this post.
As for the week ahead, I’m pleased to report that the heat and humidity will be turned down several notches! ☺️ — at least for a few days…
Just wait until you step outside this (Sunday) morning!
Monday: pleasant with low humidity 👍
Tuesday: slightly cooler than Monday, plenty of sun 🌞
Wednesday: the winning streak continues! 💯
Thursday: becoming a touch more humid, maybe a shower or storm
Friday: more humid with a chance for showers and storms, potentially heavy
Saturday-Sunday: as of this writing, some wet, humid wetter could linger for a time on Saturday before becoming less humid and drier for Sunday
Looking ahead to the week of the 7th, there’s a sign that things could be rather unsettled ⛈️
In other words, make the most of the sunny, comfortable weather while it’s around!
Hail storm!
This week featured a series of strong cold fronts in Auckland. The cold fronts here don’t come from a continent like Canada. Instead, they emerge from the Southern Ocean. Because the Southern Hemisphere is 80% water, the temperatures that cold fronts bring aren’t as extreme as what you’d expect during winter in New York.
However, the temperature difference between the incoming cold air mass and relatively warmer ocean water that surrounds New Zealand is enough to generate atmospheric instability.
That instability can manifest in a variety of ways, one being hail-bearing thunderstorms like this! ⚡
Hope your week features plenty of atmospheric stability ✌️
🫵 Premium subscribers, read on! Let’s take a look at mid and late August…