2023-24 Hudson Valley Winter Outlook ❄️

As the leaves surrender to the brisk autumn winds and the days grow shorter, the Hudson Valley begins its annual transformation into a winter wonderland.

It’s hoodie season, pumpkin spice latte season, and, especially for weather nerds, winter outlook season!

Every year I dive deep into the data in an attempt to provide you with a glimpse into the future. Unlike short-term weather forecasts, which are generally correct nine times out of ten, seasonal outlooks aren’t as skillfull — a 50-60% hit rate would be considered very good. That’s something to keep in mind as you read on.

These outlooks are crafted through past experiences, an understanding of climate drivers, meteorological expertise, and data from forecasting centers across the globe.

It’s guidance, not gospel. It’s distinctly different from a weather forecast.

Weather tells you what to wear each day, while climate tells you what types of clothes to have in your closet.

In that spirit, will you need to be prepared to dress like an Eskimo this winter or might you be able to pull out the shorts in December?

Mt Park / glacier, Fiordland National Park, September 2023

Sheep in the shadows of the Humboldt Mountains, Rees Valley, September 2023

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The outlook ❄️

Unlike past years when I wrote 10,000 word dissertation-like winter outlooks, I thought I’d try something different this year — hopefully more consumable: a video! 🎥

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It’s 32 minutes long. So grab your favorite drink, a snack, sit back, and go full screen 🍿

When you’ve finished, feel free to leave a comment below about how you’re feeling about it all…

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If you enjoyed watching or learned a thing or two, consider:

• Grabbing some new merch by following the link or clicking the button below (I think you’ll like this year’s motto 😁): https://bennollstore.com/collections/im-ready

• Become a premium subscriber by clicking the button below: premium subscribers get an early heads up about impending winter storms ❄️

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Are you ready?

Snow blankets the town, a wintry delight,
No school today, a pure snowy white.
Children rejoice in the cold and the play,
No lessons or homework, just fun all the way.