Summer to start, fall to finish

Update #420

On Saturday, the long-term Hudson Valley climate station at Dutchess County Airport recorded a high temperature of 75 degrees, setting a record for November 7th. It was also the 3rd warmest temperature observed this late in the calendar year, wiht records dating back to 1931.

The warm, dry weather will continue through Tuesday before giving way to some rain on Wednesday. Conditions more typical for the time of year are expected from Thursday onward, with Saturday looking nice at this point.

Sunday’s high temperature record is 73 and Monday’s is 75 — both are in jeopardy of being broken. There is no precedent for three consecutive days with record highs during the month of November, but it is in the realm of possibility that it could occur this year (Saturday-Sunday-Monday)…

Compared to Monday, Tuesday will come with a bit more cloud cover, especially during the morning when there could also be fog. Afternoon temperatures (near 70) will still be well above average for the time of year (the average high is 55).

By Wednesday, our weather pattern will begin to be influenced by the tropics. Moisture from Tropical Storm Eta, the 29th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season (breaking 2005’s record of 28), will streak northward, most likely reaching the Hudson Valley sometime later in the day. Elevated humidity levels will be a factor as well.

Eta (yellow shading west of Florida), will cause heavy rain in the sunshine state and its moisture (green shades) will be tugged northward along the East Coast

The moisture might be slow to depart on Thursday-Friday, its progression halted by a large ridge of high pressure off the eastern seaboard.

For the Hudson Valley, cooler air will filter into the region on Thursday with the drop continuing for Friday. Thursday will have a chance for a bit of lingering rain. Even Friday can’t be confidently declared dry at this point with Eta’s remnant moisture nearby. We’ll have to wait a day or two for the finer details to become clearer — you can follow my weather bot for that.

The first half of the weekend holds the most promise at this point. On Sunday, another system could advance toward the region, bringing clouds and an increasing chance for rain.

The week of the 16th looks to have a cold snap early on, perhaps bringing a winter-like chill for a day or two. The chances for significant precipitation appear low.

Winter outlook update

If you missed my 2020-21 Hudson Valley winter outlook a few weeks ago, you can find it here.

Each month, climate models update, giving us a refreshed view on the season to come.

One way to look at the data is to subtract the results from the previous month’s model run from the new month. Below, I’ve done this for both temperature and precipitation.

Red areas indicate where the model is trending warmer for winter — that includes the Hudson Valley and much of the central and eastern United States.

Green areas indicate where the model is trending wetter, including much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. This signature is indicative of a storm track that is to the west of the Hudson Valley, which generally drags warmer air northward. This could indicate a higher chance for ice and rain storms, but isn’t particularly favorable for snow.