Cooler this week, open the windows! 😌

Update #411

Good morning --

This is Ben Noll, trialing an alternative platform for my weekly Hudson Valley weather updates. The ease of use and cost of this alternative platform means I might migrate toward it in the future.

Before we get into this week’s forecast, let's take a look back at what was a memorable week of weather...

The tornado

What a week it was, particularly for those in Montgomery who experienced an EF1 tornado on Thursday evening with estimated wind speeds of 90 mph 😳

The wall cloud associated with the storm that produced the tornado in Montgomery | 📸 Jeff Stedner

Countless trees were uprooted in Montgomery

Radar (left) and velocity (right) loop of the cell that impacted Montgomery

The damage swath was wide, stretching from the southern end of the village to the northern part of the town. Not all of the damage was a result of the tornado, in fact most of it was a result of straight line winds on the southern flank of the storm. The National Weather Service from New York City surveyed the damage on Friday and concluded that peak winds were near 90 mph, with the tornado rating EF1 on a scale of 0 to 5.

Much footage from the storm was shared [1, 2] and I made a video discussing the "science behind the storm" early Friday morning:

This video was recorded before the storm was confirmed to be a tornado

Weather outlook

With the start of meteorological fall 🍂 on Tuesday (September 1st), the weather over the next week fortunately doesn't look quite as volatile.

Monday will continue Sunday's trend of dry and comfortable weather with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Open those windows and let the fresh air in!

A change comes for Tuesday as a moist, southeasterly air flow develops. This will mean more cloud cover and some patchy light rain. The clouds will help keep the temperature down.

On Wednesday, the humidity will continue to rise with just a slight chance for a passing shower.

Winds will shift to the southwest on Thursday, leading to a notable increase in temperatures into the middle 80s as the humidity surges. I've included a thunderstorm chance in the forecast because of the increased instability in the atmosphere.

On Friday, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest. The forecast depends on its timing, which is uncertain right now. It will most likely be a day of transition from humid, steamy conditions to much more comfortable conditions by night.

This cold front will usher what currently looks to be some pretty great weather next weekend! 🤞

The week of September 7th could be a bit unsettled to start followed by nicer, cooler weather later in the week.

A period of cooler than average weather is possible in mid-September

Update on summer heat and humidity

The long-term climate site in Poughkeepsie registered 3 more days at or above 90 degrees this past week, bringing the summer season total to 31 days. The most 90 degrees day in an entire year was 38 days in 1943 (this corrects the statistic that was reported previously). Apropos for the start of meteorological fall, this week's forecast doesn't have any 90 degree days.

The average summer (June-August) temperature of 74.3˚F will fall just short of the record set back in 2005 of 74.5˚F, making summer 2020 the Hudson Valley's 2nd hottest on record overall.

Breaking things down further, the average summer daytime high temperature was 86.1˚F, putting it in a statistical tie with 1966 for equal-hottest. The average summer overnight low temperature was 62.4˚F, making it 4th warmest.

In terms of humidity, it was provisionally the 2nd most humid summer on record in the Northeast. Only 2018 was more humid.

Summer 2020 has been the 2nd most humid on record

Have a great week!

Ben