Hello, hurricane season 🌀

Premium update #25

Hurricanes.

These vast, powerful, heat engines typically develop, strengthen, and thrive thousands of miles away from the Hudson Valley in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The Atlantic “Main Development Region” for hurricane activity is denoted by the black rectangle

Every once in a while, one will pass close enough to cause a damaging impact or, on a more positive note, break a drought.

Each year, long-range forecasters around the U.S. weigh out the factors for and against hurricane activity in an attempt to predict if the season ahead will be a busy or quiet one.

When it comes to hurricanes, a commonly used expression is “it only takes one”, in the sense that it only takes one destructive hurricane for the season to become infamously memorable — like Hurricane Ian in September 2022 or Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

The saying is used to keep coastal communities on-guard and prepared, even if the year-to-year risk for a landfall in a particular town or city is relatively low.

Hurricane season starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th. On average, September is the busiest month, but activity can ramp up as early as July or August and occur anytime during the season.

This post, for premium subscribers, will delve into the drivers behind hurricane season 2023, what the risk is looking like for the Atlantic, and more specifically, the Hudson Valley.