After the first snow, what's next?

Premium update #12

👋 Hi everyone! The first snow of the season has come and gone in the Hudson Valley. You might be wondering if there’s another storm around the corner…

The short answer: not really! The next 7 days are looking colder and drier than normal, with our next storm chance coming shortly after Thanksgiving.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s with nights in the teens 🥶

A moderating trend is possible around and after turkey day.

Over the next several days and through the weekend, the heaviest snows in the country will focus to the east of the Great Lakes. Called lake effect snow, it occurs when a very cold air mass passes over the relatively warmer lake water. This generates atmospheric instability. When the winds in the lower and middle atmosphere align and blow over the long-axis of the lake, intense snow bands form and can last for days. The direction of the wind dictates what town(s) receive the most snow. I experienced this phenomenon during my time at SUNY Oswego.

A particularly heavy lake effect snow band will extend off of Lake Erie near Buffalo, New York, from Thursday night into Sunday. There is an indication that snowfall amounts may exceed 2 feet and perhaps even reach higher than 3 or 4 feet in localized areas.

That’s about as much snow as the Hudson Valley typically receives in an entire winter. Let that sink in 🤯

And, oh yeah, there’s a football game to be played in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon (Browns vs Bills). Definitely keep an eye on that one! 👀

The heaviest snows over the next 10 days will occur near the Great Lakes

Longer term, conditions look variable from late November into early December. There seems to be the potential for some stormy weather on the “travel home” weekend after Thanksgiving (November 26th and 27th). Tuck that detail in the back of your head.

There’s also a sign that December could be a bit of bumpy ride this year. The weather “menu” is fuzzy, but the ingredients for cold and snow do appear to be in the mixing bowl.

Let’s see how many snow days I can cook up 👨‍🍳

Talk soon!