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Fast Friday update!
Premium update #19
Hello Hudson Valley friends! Are you wondering…
When is it going to snow?
☝️ That’s the question filling my feeds this week! 😅
It seems like the majority of us are indeed ready for a snow day. I’m doing my best to deliver, but Mother Nature is busy dumping it all in California’s Sierra Nevada 🏔️
As I gaze into the crystal ball, I see two opportunities for flakes over the next week.
Will these opportunities be converted into a touchdown or be a missed field goal? 🏈
1️⃣ First: early Monday.
The powerful disturbance that just drenched California will embark on a cross-country journey this weekend.
While it will weaken as it moves along, it will regain some juice as it taps into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.
Come Monday morning, the feature will likely be near the Mid-Atlantic coast, south of the Hudson Valley, but near enough to bring a chance for snow.
What? Light snow possible.
When? Early Monday morning.
How much? Probably an inch or less, although potential accumulation has trended upward.
Impacts? Should snow occur, roads and sidewalks could become coasted. School delays possible.
The forecast is not set in stone, but with the weekend upon us, I wanted to give you a heads up. I’ll have an update on Sunday and of course you can follow along on Twitter!
2️⃣ Next: late next week (Friday-Saturday).
The Hudson Valley’s weather late next week will be affected by disturbances currently over China and Russia — thousands of miles away!
How these two distant swirls interact will determine whether or not we have snow, ice, rain, or nothing at all.
The swirls will likely form a storm that comes ashore in California on Tuesday, which is when the late week forecast will come into clearer focus. By then, the storm will have been sampled by weather balloons and aircraft, aiding forecast skill.
At this point, it’s looking like it will approach the eastern seaboard next Friday, passing offshore during the weekend of the 14-15th.
It’s not looking exceedingly cold, but a high pressure system over southern Canada could provide just enough of a chill to enable wintry precipitation. I don’t think the setup is particularly favorable for an all-snow event.
🤔 Just how much confidence is there this far out? I’d say there’s medium confidence in a storm forming near the East Coast but low confidence in what it will bring to the Hudson Valley.
To illustrate this, I show 30 different forecast scenarios, called an ensemble.
Each iteration of the model is tweaked slightly differently in an attempt to capture the range of possible atmospheric behavior.
When many ensemble members agree (disagree) on the forecast, confidence is higher (lower).
Individually, the ensemble members make noise, but together, they make music!
🔎 You may have to zoom in, but about 12 of the 30 members (40%) are going for at least an inch (yellow shading 🟡). Four members suggest at least three inches (orange shading 🟠).
All in all, it looks like I’ll be a little busier next week than I was this week! Stay tuned for more updates and have a great weekend ✌️