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Storm's a brewin'
Premium update #21
There are a few storms on my radar and I’ve got some dates to share with you:
January 19th, Thursday: a cold rain, maybe mixed with sleet in the Hudson Valley but an icy mix in the Catskills
January 22nd-23rd, Sunday-Monday: depending on the track, this system has a chance to provide a quick hit of wet snow from later Sunday into early Monday; a close call — we may be near the rain/snow line
January 25th-26th, Wednesday-Thursday: yet another system could swipe the region during the middle of next week, providing another chance for wintry weather
Borderline storms have been the name of the game this winter and Thursday looks like no exception. Temperatures in the Hudson Valley will generally be between 32-35 degrees as a cold rain moves toward the region late Thursday morning.
As the rain falls, the atmospheric column will cool (called evaporative cooling), which could result in some wet snow and sleet, mainly north of Poughkeepsie. A light accumulation of less than an inch is possible in northern Ulster and far northern Dutchess during the afternoon, mainly on secondary roads and sidewalks.
Farther south near the I-84 corridor, the rain may mix with sleet at the onset, but accumulation is unlikely and road conditions should remain ok.
Toward the west in the Catskills, travel could turn tricky, particularly above 1500 ft elevation. There, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected from mid Thursday morning through the evening.
The weather could result in closings or early dismissals for schools in Sullivan County/Catskills, interior and northern Ulster County, and far northern Dutchess County. The National Weather Service might issue statements or advisories for these areas, so keep an eye out.
Otherwise, you can follow along on Twitter for more information.
For most, rain will continue on Thursday night. Rain and non-accumulating snow showers are possible on Friday.
The discussion on storms (2) and (3) continues below…
The storms next week won’t be lacking moisture. The Gulf of Mexico will inject plenty of precipitation into the pattern.
Just check out the animation below…
What could be lacking is cold air.
Both storms (2) and (3) look to have more of an inland track rather than coastal.
Westerly tracks typically push the rain/snow line farther north and west.
Odds wise, I’d say it’s pretty close to 50/50 at this point that the Hudson Valley sees some accumulation on Sunday night. There’s a better chance in the Catskills and especially farther upstate where it could be quite a big storm ❄️
Behind the storm, a colder air mass will briefly slide into the region ahead of Wednesday’s likely event.
Again, this storm look to be an inland runner and not a traditional coastal low, reducing our chances for a big accumulation.
The antecedent cold air mass could allow for some wintry precipitation, particularly at the storm’s onset, but we’re not looking at a blizzard.
What can I say but our “weird” winter continues 🙃
Talk again soon.