Season's first flakes ❄️
Update #628a
The first flakes of the season are likely to fly across the Hudson Valley and Catskills from Thursday evening into Friday! ❄️
This wet snow threat comes amid a complicated weather pattern across the Northeast — one that will fuel the development of a strong area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. It’s this low that will give rise to a snow threat starting on Thursday evening, which will be preceded by much-needed moderate-to-heavy rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Sullivan County and a Winter Weather Advisory for western Ulster County, both starting at 4:00 pm on Thursday.
After school activity cancellation is possible in the Catskills on Thursday. School delays or closures are possible, if not probable, in the Catskills on Friday. There is a chance for school delays in Orange County on Friday, with a slight chance for closures in the southern or western part of the county under a boom scenario.
The event will be highly elevation-dependent, as is often the case with early-season storms, with the chance for accumulation in the Hudson Valley being tempered by temperatures in the mid 30s on Thursday night.
The map below provides an indication of possible snowfall accumulation by early Friday afternoon. The values may be inflated somewhat, but the map does a good job of highlighting the areas that will likely experience snow. It will be heaviest in northeast PA.
What to know
What? Rain changing to snow, heaviest in the Catskills.
When? Rain is forecast to transition to snow in the Catskills after 4:00 pm Thursday. Any snow in the Hudson Valley will likely hold off until after 7:00 pm Thursday.
Where? Snow accumulation will likely be confined to Sullivan and western Ulster County, though Orange County may see some as well, particularly in elevated areas of the southern and western part of the county.
How much? Accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible in the Catskills with locally higher amounts. The heavy, wet nature of the snow will lead to significant compaction. Some accumulation cannot be ruled out for Orange County, particularly south of I-84 and in the west.
Impacts? After school activity cancellation is possible in the Catskills on Thursday. School delays or closures are possible, if not probable, in the Catskills on Friday. There is a chance for school delays in Orange County on Friday, with a slight chance for closures in the southern or western part of the county under a boom scenario.
Confidence? Above freezing temperatures during the storm means that snow will have a difficult time sticking to roads — especially in Orange County. This issue may be overcome by heavier snow rates in the Catskills.
Long-term winter weather patterns
Looking ahead to the week of Thanksgiving and early December…