Plans Saturday? Mother Nature does too

Update #423a

Hello all. This is an update about a coastal storm system that is expected to impact the Hudson Valley on Saturday.

While specific details are still being fine tuned, here’s what looks likely at the moment:

• Low pressure forms over the Carolinas on Friday, moves up the East Coast on Friday night-Saturday as a “nor’easter”

• While this setup would normally put much of the Northeast on watch for snow, there will be a limited amount of cold air this time around

• There looks to be enough cold air for a swath of snow on the storm’s backside — the swath’s location is currently a question mark

• Elevation will play a role: higher elevations will be more likely to see snow

• The system looks to be a relatively fast mover

In a situation like this, it is a good idea to check the forecast regularly. Every 6 hours, numerical weather prediction models ingest the latest satellite data, which provides fresh information on the atmospheric “puzzle pieces” that will make up the eventual storm. This has a positive effect on forecast accuracy and precision.

Here’s what the Hudson Valley could experience:

• A cold rain arriving later on Friday

• A possible changeover to wet snow on Saturday as cold air wraps into the system

• Depending on storm track, the potential to be in the relatively narrow swath of accumulating snow (low confidence!)

• Storm clearing out on Saturday night

Predicted pressure and precipitation, 1pm Saturday | note the swath of snow on the storm’s backside, whose placement is uncertain!

So there you have it. No need to rush to the store and buy bread and milk at this point 😅

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