This week: snowy start, then improving

Update #428

Hello Hudson Valley! I’ve got the very latest on the Sunday snow event for you, along with an outlook for the rest of the week.

Don’t have time to read the whole thing? Here’s the executive summary: once snow ends early Monday morning, the rest of the working week is looking decent. We’ll need to keep an eye on a coastal storm nearby next Saturday.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the snow expected today and tonight. Below is the latest predicted snowfall map from one of NOAA’s highest resolution weather models. I retrieve the data from their supercomputer and turn it into an image that anyone can interpret.

As for what I’m expecting: it hasn’t changed much since yesterday. Predicted snowfall amounts have decreased a bit due to marginally cold temperatures and because the coastal low pressure system will lack organization.

What? Wet snow, steadiest in the evening and early overnight hours.

When? A snow or sleet shower is possible before noon. A steadier wet snow is expected to develop between noon-3:00 pm. The steadiest snow will fall during the evening and early overnight hours. Accumulating snow looks to end by about 2:00 am Monday.

How much? 2-4 inches, although the lower end of the range (i.e. 2 inches) looks more likely than 4.

Impacts? When snow arrives today, roads should remain mainly wet. After dark, temperatures are expected to hover near or fall just below freezing, allowing roads to become slushy to lightly snow-covered and slick. Areas along and north of I-84 as well as along Route 17 westward into the Catskills have the best chances for slippery conditions. Marginally cold temperatures farther south should hold things back a bit.

My recommendation would be to try and get your errands done earlier in the day today.

As for Monday’s school predictions: given the relatively small accumulation and modest impacts expected, the chance for widespread delays is low to medium. It will be up to each district to assess local road conditions and the need (or lack thereof) to tidy up parking lots and sidewalks before welcoming students and staff back. If your district is virtual, this doesn’t apply!

I’ll provide further updates on Twitter on Sunday evening.

As for the rest of the week, here’s how it’s looking…

A pretty low key weather week is in store.

Temperatures should reach to near 40 degrees on Monday, melting away the freshly fallen snow with haste.

An upper atmospheric disturbance might find itself above the region on Tuesday. One thing meteorologists are taught from the very beginning is to never trust an upper low! Thus, I’ve kept a chance for snow showers in the forecast.

Wednesday looks to have improved conditions compared to Tuesday, although there will be a brisk northerly breeze.

Thursday looks like the pick day of the week, although I do get a little uncomfortable making calls like that five days in advance during January, the area’s 3rd-least sunny month of the year. But let’s roll with it for now 😎

Dry weather looks to continue on Friday as a storm likely develops over the Carolinas. The storm could then track up the coast on Saturday, making a close pass on the region. For now, that’s really all that can be said. It’s worth watching.

By Sunday, it will have likely reached Newfoundland, whisking away any weather worries for us.

While the Hudson Valley is normally a cold, snowy place during January, we’ve got some climate drivers that are suggesting we could be in for a snowier-than-normal pattern in the mid-to-late part of the month. For now, we sit back, watch, and wait…

Happy day! Enjoy some more beach photos.

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