⚠️ Busy weather week ahead!

Update #433

Hello there! While I’m not about to predict who will win the Super Bowl, I am predicting a busy week of weather ahead.

So remember to be extra nice to your friendly forecaster this week. Their hands will be full!

First things first, we have a winter weather event happening today. Forecast snowfall amounts have decreased somewhat since yesterday, with 2-4 inches of powder now expected. It will start this morning between 9:00-11:00 am and end by about 4:00 pm.

With overnight temperatures as cold as the upper single digits as well as leftover patches of snow and ice, prepare to take it slowly during the Monday AM commute. We could see a few school delays to account for this.

Although it will be cold, Monday is one of the few days this week that promises some sunshine…

Things quickly turn more interesting on Tuesday as a disorganized wave of moisture tracks across the Northeast. Snow intensity isn’t looking heavy nor are the early amounts looking all that impressive, but this one could end up being all about timing.

Right now, it’s looking like a steady, light snow through much of the day. With temperatures in the 10s and 20s, snow will have no trouble sticking.

The finer details will become clearer, but a snow day is at least in the conversation at this point.

We should have a break on Wednesday before the potential for the week’s most substantial event on Thursday-Friday.

It’s still too soon to talk in-depth about this event, but it could be prolonged and impactful. The early indication favors the worst weather happening later Thursday through early Friday, but that can change.

I’m as interested in the snow day chances as you are, so be on the look out for more info later this week.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Saturday looks okay at the moment but Sunday could feature a cold front.

An Arctic air mass will be sitting over the north-central U.S. this week, with pieces of it breaking off, helping to fuel our unsettled conditions.

The weather word of the week is “baroclinicity”, which refers to an atmosphere with strongly contrasting temperatures. In order to restore balance, the atmosphere tries to mix out these temperature differences, which results in the formation of low pressure systems (storms) — it’s all about temperature gradients. They fuel storms! 🌀

I expect that the baroclinic environment will remain through the week of the 15th, too 😉

Also, be glad you don’t live in Moccasin, Montana.

If you’re sick of winter’s antics, well, meteorological spring is *22* days away (March 1st). While we have to navigate a winding wintry path first, there is a beacon of light in the distance…

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