Ice storm & Thursday update

Update #434a

Hello and welcome to my continued coverage of the latest winter weather wallop.

If you only have a minute to spare, you can listen to the forecast by clicking below. For all the details, read on.

As of early Monday, an Ice Storm Warning had been issued for Orange County and a Winter Weather Advisory for Putnam, Rockland, Westchester, Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess County.

There will be quite a bit of variability in the conditions experienced and impacts across the region through early Tuesday morning. In general, the worst of the weather is expected along and north of I-84.

Before the main storm arrives tonight, there will be scattered wintry precipitation this (Monday) afternoon. Although little in the way of accumulation is expected, even a brief period of sleet or freezing rain can cause slippery travel conditions.

What? Freezing rain tonight (Monday night), changing to plain rain in many areas by daybreak Tuesday, except in northern and western Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, and northern and western Dutchess County.

When? Monday night through early Tuesday morning. Where ice persists the longest, it will end by 10:00 am Tuesday.

How much? It’s complicated and best illustrated by a map. The heaviest ice accumulations are expected across northern and western Orange, Sullivan, Ulster, and northern and western Dutchess County where up to 0.50 inch of ice can accrete. For areas farther south, there will be a sharp cutoff from some ice in Rockland and Putnam County to little in Westchester — here, warming temperatures Monday night will make conditions marginal for ice accretion. Temperatures should reach or exceed the freezing mark for all locations by mid-morning Tuesday, allowing for melting to commence in even the iciest spots.

Impacts? The most substantial impacts are expected in northern and western Orange, Sullivan, Ulster, and northern and western Dutchess County where a casing of ice is possible by Tuesday morning. This is where downed trees and power outages can occur. Issues will linger into the Tuesday AM commute. For schools in session in these counties, delays are likely with closings possible, depending on local conditions come Tuesday morning.

For areas farther south, conditions won’t be as bad and will improve during the Tuesday AM commute. Delays will be possible but closings aren’t as likely.

By Tuesday afternoon, it will become quite mild with temperatures reaching into the 40s to as warm as 50 in some spots 🌡️

Thursday

Hot on the heels on winter storm 1️⃣ is number 2️⃣. Wintry precipitation will probably get underway sometime later in the morning.

What? Snow changing to ice.

When? Starting later Thursday morning. Ending by Friday morning.

How much? Several inches of snow will be possible, followed by a glaze of ice.

Impact? School closures or early dismissals are likely for Thursday. School delays are possible for Friday. The Thursday evening commute will probably have the worst conditions with treacherous, icy travel continuing overnight into early Friday.

This is what it looked like in Liberty, New York, following an ice storm around the New Year in 2020.


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