Thursday storm thoughts

Update #434c

Hi there! 👋

The weather is looking chilly but sunny today in the Hudson Valley. That’s the good news.

The not so good news is that a long duration winter storm will begin affecting the region on Thursday, continuing into Friday.

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entirety of the region, likely to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

One of the challenges with this storm has been pinning down the start time. As it moves northward on Thursday morning, the system will encounter a dry ridge of high pressure, which will have an impact on how quickly the snow can get underway. The southern parts of the region (along and south of I-84) will have an earlier start time than points north. To account for this, I’ve offered a wide starting time window.

It also now looks like the storm will primarily bring snow to our region rather than a mix.

What? Snow, steadiest Thursday afternoon and night.

When? Starting 6:00 am to noon Thursday from south to north. Accumulating snow gradually ending Friday morning.

How much? 4-8 inches 🌨️

Impact? The chance for school closures on Thursday has increased since yesterday. Deteriorating road conditions are possible Thursday morning with treacherous travel likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, impacting the Thursday PM and Friday AM commutes in particular. With snow continuing until Friday morning, delays are very likely Friday and closures are again possible.

These percentages are mutually exclusive. In other words, a 100% chance for an early dismissal and an 80% chance for a closing should be interpreted as: there’s an 80% chance for a closing, but, if it doesn’t happen, there’s a 100% chance for an early dismissal.

Additional information, including school closing percentages, will be posted on Twitter later today and tonight.

The weekend is looking dry with the next chance for precipitation on Monday.

Have a great day! The countdown to meteorological spring is on: 12 days until March 1st.

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