Graduation weather

Update #452

Hello! Can you believe it’s already late June? Graduation, senior event, and party season is here and along with it the hopes of dry, sunny weather.

This time of the year, I get lots of personal forecast requests. I try to respond to them all, but they do take time. A donation goes a long way to help cover that time.

Having a back up plan or a rain date for any event is a good idea, as it allows for flexibility in picking the day with the best weather conditions. That’s not always possible, which is where I come in!

A common weather event this time of the year is the afternoon shower or thunderstorm, which are fuelled by heat and humidity that builds during the day. Much like you can’t guess which kernel will pop first in a bag of popcorn, it’s not possible to predict what town(s) a storm will “pop” over on a summer afternoon 🍿 ⚡

However, it is possible to predict the general coverage and intensity of showers and storms over the next three days. Days 4 and 5 offer some level of predictability while days 6 and 7 can go either way. From day 7 to 14, it’s about trends: will it be warmer/cooler/wetter/drier?

The good news is that this week isn’t looking too bad, but there’s almost always a bad apple or two over a bunch of days 🍏🍎🍏🍏🍏🍏🍎

This week, the bad apple days might be Tuesday and Sunday.

For the cap-tossing grads on Saturday, things are looking alright at the moment.

Before then, we’ll have a sultry day on Monday as it vies to become the 7th 90+ degree so far this year in the Hudson Valley.

On Tuesday, a front will cross through the region, increasing the chance for rain, but probably not for the whole day. Forecast details will be fine-tuned, but a period of rain is looking likely between the mid-morning and mid-afternoon.

Much cooler, Canadian air will filter into the region for Wednesday and Thursday with chilly mornings for the time of year. They’re easily the pick weather days of the week.

Decent weather could stick around for Friday. There is just a slight chance for shower activity later in the day.

🧑‍🎓 Next weekend is expected to be warmer and more humid as a southerly air flow develops. On Saturday, a weak frontal boundary near the East Coast could cause just enough instability for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but it isn’t looking like a washout.

On Sunday, a disturbance could advance toward the region from the Great Lakes. It could spark showers and thunderstorms and has the chance to be more widespread than Saturday.

Take away message? Events next weekend will have weather to contend with. Keep an eye on the forecast through the week.

Looking ahead to the week of the 28th, the weather could trend a little bit cooler and more unsettled.

The 2021 summer solstice is here!

The June solstice is the time at which the Sun’s zenith reaches its northernmost point. This means that the Sun will visible be directly overhead the Tropic of Cancer (23˚N) at noon and the North Pole will experience 24 hours of daylight.

On Sunday in the Hudson Valley, the sun’s angle in the sky at solar noon (12:57 pm) will be at its highest point of the year — 72 degrees to an observer on the ground. It will also be the longest day of the year with 15 hours, 11 minutes, and 2 seconds of daylight.

To the contrary, there will be no daylight in Antarctica until the September equinox.

By the end of July, day length will decrease by 47 minutes in the Hudson Valley.

Have a great week!