Summer battles back

Update #464

The autumn equinox may be approaching, but Mother Nature has summer on her mind for the last full week of the season.

After a break from high humidity recently, the mugginess will start to creep back up today (Sunday), lasting through most of the week 🥵

If you were thinking that this summer has been extra moist and humid, you’d be correct. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor — a trend that shows no signs of slowing:

Ben Noll @BenNollWeather

Turns out, this summer was actually a record-breaker for atmospheric moisture in the Northeast U.S. region. Shocking, I know. The climate change signal is intertwined. No one event is caused by climate change, but there is a climate change handprint in extreme events like Ida.

Speaking of moisture, an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop in western New York this afternoon and evening, possibly forming into a line as it pushes eastward. It will most likely stay north of the Hudson Valley tonight, but bears watching.

The working week will start on a dry and increasingly sunny note on Monday with humidity gradually easing through the day.

There will be changes from Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the south. In the weather biz, the saying goes: “never trust a warm front”. Warm fronts, or the leading edge of warmer air, tend to be diffuse boundaries in the atmosphere that models struggle with. Sometimes, they come with severe weather.

This one will bring more humid air with a chance for a few showers, both in the morning and possibly again later on in the day.

🌡️ Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week with uncomfortable levels of humidity. There will be a chance for a heavy shower or thunderstorm by evening as a front approaches the region.

It looks as though the front could become stalled near the region on Thursday and Friday, keeping the muggy weather in place.

A more refreshing air mass looks to find its way into the region next weekend, but the week of the 20th promises to bring more unseasonably warm air, at least to start.

Hurricane wise, there will be much to watch over the next few weeks. First up is a storm that will likely approach Texas early this week with flooding rainfall a possibility. The next name on the list is Nicholas.

This animation speaks for itself!

Ben Noll @BenNollWeather

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I typically end my posts with a pretty scene from New Zealand, but this week I’d like to show you the ugly! We get bad weather too!

Ben Noll @BenNollWeather

Storm chasing... from my balcony! 😅 (sound on for full effect 🔊) A cold frontal rain band just ripped through Auckland, New Zealand, producing a 102 km/h (63 mph) wind gust. 3 days ago this was in the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean...

Have a super last week of summer! 😎

PS: I’ve started working on my Hudson Valley winter outlook! It will be released later in October 😏