Sunny then soggy

Update #472

Hi everyone, welcome to my weekly Hudson Valley weather update 👋

It has been a chilly start to the month. On Wednesday morning, the region experienced its first sub-freezing temperatures of fall. This marked the end of the longest growing season on record at the long-term climate site in Poughkeepsie — a remarkable 211 days between 32 degree temperature readings. The previous record was 202 days in the year 1995.

On Saturday morning, Montgomery reached a chilly 22 degrees, which is the average low temperature just before Christmas.

This week we’re headed back in the other direction, with some milder nights and daytime temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. No snow for us just yet 🙅‍♂️ 🌨️



It will start off with sunshine ☀️ but end on the soggy side 🌧️

An expansive ridge of high pressure will extend up the eastern seaboard to start the week, causing a string of dry days with sunshine and mild temperatures. Nice for November!

Compared to recent days, the nights will also turn warmer.

On Thursday and Friday, a big area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest could deliver a swath of accumulating snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota 🌨️

The East Coast will find itself on the warm side of the storm as air gets dredged up from the Gulf of Mexico.

This will likely culminate in a period of rainy and somewhat muggy conditions for the Hudson Valley between Friday and Saturday. The timing is still a bit up in the air at this point.

A transition toward cooler temperatures is likely from Sunday onward, continuing into the week of the 15th. Even colder conditions may arrive in time for the week of the 22nd.

Snow trends

I’m sure many folks are wondering when we might experience our first snow of the season. With a change toward colder conditions looking possible for the second half of the month, chances for snow will be on the rise.

I’m now processing data from a 35-day weather model that runs once per day. While predicting snow on a specific day weeks in advance is not this model’s forté, identifying colder windows with the potential for snow is possible.

The animation below compares forecast snowfall over the next week vs the following two weeks, taking us through the week of the 15th and 22nd.

While this doesn’t guarantee snow at any particular location, it suggests that the chance for some snow in the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast will be on the rise before Thanksgiving.

Something I’ve certainly got my eyes on! ❄️

A scintillating sunset 🌇 — Auckland had its warmest day of the spring so far, 78 degrees, as the sunset time ticked past 8:00 pm. The longest days of the year in the Southern Hemisphere will occur over the next 6 weeks.

In the spirit of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference ongoing in Scotland, I put together a Twitter thread of how things are changing in the Hudson Valley. Our October weather was a good example of what will become more common in a warming world. Even if our region isn’t on the front lines of the most extreme change, we all have a part to play 📈

Have a great week!