Watching Wednesday
Update #476
Hi there!
If you’ve been following your weather app closely over the last few days — or follow me on Twitter — you’ll have seen some mention of possible snow on Wednesday.
🗣️ Cutting to the chase, while there is a chance for accumulating snow, the chance for a high impact event appears to be modest.
The storm is dependent on three pieces of energy in the atmosphere coming together at the right time. Basically, a lot has to go right in order to get substantial snow while only a little has to go wrong to have a minor or non-event.
At the moment, one piece is over the Arctic Circle and the other two are over the Pacific Ocean. Forecasters tend to be cautious with developing systems whose components are in the Pacific. Until they reach the West Coast, they won’t be sampled by weather balloons, which can make a material difference to the forecast.
❗ By Monday, all the system’s features will be over North America, which should lend itself to a more confident forecast.
For more meteorological musings, you can check out my latest Twitter thread. I’ll have more details as they become available!
There is, of course, more weather going on this week — starting with a cold front on Monday.
After a mild day (upper 50s!) with some showers, the front will blow through the region during the evening. In the hours leading up to its passage, winds could gust as high as 35-40 mph 🌬️
Tuesday will be colder but dry and tranquil.
While Wednesday’s forecast is still crystallizing, snow could develop during the morning hours with the afternoon and evening likely having the best chance. There’s not enough confidence to offer school closing or early dismissal chances just yet.
Although it will depend to some extent on what happens Wednesday, a cold, frosty Thursday morning looks to be followed by a calm day, similar to Tuesday.
A warming trend is likely from Friday through the weekend. A couple of weak disturbances could track across the region, bringing a chance for scattered rainfall, but nothing I’d cancel plans over at the moment.
📈 Looking further ahead, waves of rather mild air look to march across the U.S. through mid-December with the coldest air locked up over Alaska. This will likely reduce, but not eliminate, our chances for accumulating snow.
Have a great week — I’ll be in touch about Wednesday as we hear more from Mother Nature 🌨️
