Good day! Mother Nature is reaching deep into her bag of tricks this week.
I’m calling it a “weather roller coaster” 🎢
As of this writing, it’s around 0 degrees across the Hudson Valley and a teeth-chattering -7 at Monticello. Over the next 36 hours, we’ll have snow, rain, wind, and a 40+ degree temperature rise.
❄️ Let’s start off with the latest forecast snowfall for the upcoming storm:
Snow starts from 8:00 - 11:00 pm Sunday from southwest to northeast
Heaviest from 11:00 pm Sunday - 5:00 am Monday
3-6 inches expected for most places, except:
Lower amounts in Rockland/Westchester (1-3”)
Higher amounts in western Orange & western Ulster (6-9”)
Highest amounts in Sullivan County / Catskills (6-12”)
A period of strong easterly winds is expected from 3:00 - 7:00 am Monday, which could result in some scattered power outages
Snow will have changed to rain for most places by 7:00 am Monday; the rain may be heavy and cause ponding of water on area roadways, especially when combined with the potential for rapid snow melt
If you have to travel early on Monday morning, give yourself plenty of extra time!
Winter Weather Advisories + Winter Storm Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service ⚠️
The rest of Monday will feature showers, wet snow, and gusty winds as a vigorous upper level low pressure system spins directly overhead.
Adding to the “fun”, a much colder air mass will blow in on Monday night, leading to a pretty steep temperature drop and the formation of black ice.
I’m not sure *widespread* delays will be needed on Tuesday morning, but districts in Sullivan County (that have a bigger snow pack) probably have the best chance.
Despite the chill, we’ll have an opportunity to catch our collective breaths on Tuesday with sunny skies.
After single digit temperatures on Wednesday morning, it will warm up quite a bit through the day thanks to a southerly wind flow. A front will approach later in the day, which could cause a few showers.
Yet another cold, Canadian air mass will swing into the region throughout the day on Thursday. This will set the stage for the coldest stretch of winter so far, beginning Thursday night and lasting into the following week 🥶
🍒 The cherry on top would be another snow storm that occurs when school isn’t in session. Saturday is the day to watch at this point. Only watching though - far from certain. But if it were to snow, the “fluff factor” could be pretty big given how cold the temperatures are expected to be.
The week of January 24th looks rather cold with a likely continuation of topsy-turvy weather patterns 🤪
Tongan eruption 🌋
Chances are you heard about the explosive volcanic eruption that occurred in Tonga over the weekend.
I’ve never been to Tonga -by all accounts, a beautiful Pacific island group- though I collaborate with their meteorological service at a climate forum twice per year.
The eruption, appearing to be the most energetic since Pinatubo in 1991, caused an atmospheric shock wave that traveled around the world. Air pressure spikes even reached New York on Saturday.
The wave, traveling at the speed of sound (~767 mph), reached New Zealand on Saturday evening (local time) about 2 hours post-eruption. It sounded like a series of rumbling cannon shots, a very unusual sound (my fiancée and I thought there was something wrong with our car for a moment!). What we were hearing was the volcanic explosion rippling through the atmosphere.
It remains to be seen if the eruption will result in a temporary global cooling effect like Pinatubo did — this will be determined by how much sulfur dioxide reaches the stratosphere. We’ll learn more in the coming weeks.
Sending warm vibes 🌴 — have a great week!