Tricky Thursday snow

Update #482a

Greetings all!

As I said in my last update, it’s all aboard the weather roller coaster. The next trick Mother Nature is pulling out of her bag is a wave of accumulating snow, just in time for Thursday’s morning commute. Lovely.

The National Weather Service has issued the following statement:

A light snowfall accumulation could result in snow covered and icy roads for the Thursday morning commute. Monitor subsequent forecasts for updates on this event.

When it comes to the weather, it’s all about timing. These “nuisance” events can sneak up on you — especially when they occur during a commute period.

For this one, I think the areas farther south and east (e.g., Rockland, Putnam, and Westchester) will get more snow than areas north and west.

The potential snow map below illustrates how tight the accumulation gradient may be across the Hudson Valley on Thursday morning — from a coating to 2-3 inches in just 20 miles! It’s a game of inches 🤏

Since the Hudson Valley is “walking the tightrope” when it comes to snow on Thursday morning, I don’t expect the forecast will crystallize until snow is almost on our doorstep.

This is one that you’ll want to follow for additional updates — I’ll be active on Twitter come Wednesday evening.

What? Light to to locally moderate snow.

When? Mainly after 4am Thursday, likely ending by midday (lasting longest east of the river).

How much? Significant variability possible over short distances — from a coating to an inch in the Catskills, to an inch or so in Orange, eastern Ulster, and Dutchess, to 1-3 inches in Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester.

☝️ subject to change

Impact? Given the timing during the morning commute, the chance for impacts is elevated. Temperatures will drop below freezing on Thursday morning, leading to the development of snow-covered and slick roads. Delays are possible with closings not completely out of the question, particularly for areas to the south and east, like Rockland and Westchester.

Updates on Twitter as necessary on Thursday evening. See you there ✌️