Well, that escalated quickly.
Since I last wrote, the forecast for Friday and Saturday has turned more “interesting”.
And when a meteorologist uses that word, it’s usually a sign that something is coming — potentially.
So, what’s happening?
First, Friday: it’s the hors d'oeuvre for Saturday. Light snow may break out as early as the pre-dawn hours and continue through the morning commute. Given cold temperatures in the teens, it could cover roads and create slippery conditions even if accumulations are rather light. There’s a chance that light snow continues much of Friday before intensifying during the evening.
This is the high-level overview 3 days out. Refined forecasts will be issued.
In the meantime, it presents an unusual risk “trifecta” whereby, depending on timing, amounts, and risk appetite, delays, closings, and early dismissals are all possible.
Saturday: for whatever reason, Mother Nature seems intent on saving her best for days when school isn’t in session! This one isn’t a slam dunk just yet, but the odds are probably better than Steph Curry’s 3 point percentage and rising.
It’s a classic nor’easter signal and most of the ingredients needed for a good one are in place.
The most likely scenario involves snow increasing in intensity on Friday night and peaking Saturday.
This storm could undergo explosive cyclogenesis offshore (a term that describes a rapidly strengthening low), bringing the potential for blizzard conditions somewhere, most likely in New England.
For the Hudson Valley, it will all depend on how far west the storm tracks. Temperatures in the teens mean that snow would be fluffy and pile up quickly, with blowing and drifting possible.
With the right track, the ceiling is high for us. That’s what it will come down to. A jog to the east and our odds slip.
The early indication is for the heaviest snow to occur to our east, but this is definitely one to watch.