Weather whiplash - Wednesday snow ❄️

Update #488a

This update may be surprising, but at least you won’t be surprised!

Weather, and life in general, comes at you fast. As a meteorologist, you quickly learn that agility is a critical attribute as Mother Nature tends to keep one hand behind her back!

🌡️ In the latest version of “weather whiplash”, we’re going from record highs on Sunday —and again on Monday in the lower Hudson Valley— to a snowy day Wednesday 🌨️

What I mentioned in my last post is worth repeating: snow in March is complex. There are more variables to consider than in the dead of winter. This includes warmer ground and pavement temperatures, a higher sun angle, and longer days, making it more challenging for snow to stick to paved surfaces. In order to overcome these factors, it typically needs to snow hard and occur at night.

In general, but certainly not always, it’s easier for storms to go bust than boom in March and April.

These things are on my mind as I detail Wednesday’s forecast and snow day prediction.

As of 5:00 am Tuesday, he National Weather Service has yet to issue a statement or advisory, but that will probably change by Tuesday evening.

What? Snow, reaching a moderate intensity.

When? Starting from 8:00 - 11:00 am Wednesday, from south to north. It will start across southern Orange, Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam first before spreading northward. Ending Wednesday evening.

How much? This is a real challenge! There will be a difference between how much sticks to grass/car roofs and how much sticks to pavement. Given the wet consistency of the snow, it will also be easily compressed. Since the storm will be happening during the day, my expectation is for 1-4 inches on grass/non-paved surfaces but for roadway accumulation to range from wet to a slushy inch at any given time — sidewalk accumulation will likely be somewhere in between. The highest amounts will occur over elevated, hilly areas, and the lowest amounts in the immediate vicinity of the Hudson River.

Impact? Variable across the region. South of I-84, the morning commute will likely turn snowy from around 8:00 am — with temperatures hovering near or just below freezing, secondary roads may become snow-covered. This is where school closures are more likely.

North of I-84, things likely won’t get going until mid-to-late morning. By then, temperatures will have risen to near or just above freezing and snow may melt on contact at first. It’s also where early dismissals are slightly more likely than closures. I will continue to monitor the start time and provide subsequent updates on Twitter this evening.

I expect that the PM commute will have roads ranging from wet to slushy across the region, given the marginal temperatures and treatment by road crews — so probably not terrible, but requiring extra caution and slower speeds.

Temperatures will fall below freezing on Wednesday night with a refreeze expected. Conditions will be slippery in spots on Thursday morning.

I will certainly have more information on Twitter this evening and potentially another email update on Wednesday morning if warranted!

PS: I am also monitoring colder trends with Saturday’s storm system — should snow threaten, I’ll provide another update.

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🙏 Thanks for your support this winter! I have an end-of-season sale on at my (new!) store below, just use promo code “spring” for 20% off!