🌧️ April showers bring May flowers 🌷
Almost all of us have probably heard the saying. But where did it originate?
A quick search reveals that it dates back to the 1500s when Thomas Tusser, a poet in England, wrote “sweet April showers do bring May flowers”.
April weather in England can be claggy as the jet stream can be particularly meridional (having big north-to-south dips), ushering air from the cold North Atlantic — broadly similar to the Hudson Valley, except it’s from Canada.
So if you’re after abundant sunshine, you’ll either have to be patient or move south! Several days are expected to be rainy this week in the Hudson Valley: today (Sunday), Wednesday and Thursday 😬
🌫️ Speaking of claggy, it’s not a bad way to describe today’s weather in the Hudson Valley — rain may even be mixed with wet snow, particularly over the Catskills where a few inches could cover the landscape 🌨️
Things will improve for Monday and Tuesday thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure. Make the most of the dry weather, because…
💧 Wednesday looks like a washout as a low pressure system swirls across the Mid-Atlantic, giving the Hudson Valley a cool northeasterly wind. Thursday doesn’t look much better — a front will approach from the west, tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. For the Hudson Valley, the rain could be heavy, particularly later in the day and at night.
Friday-Sunday will see the return of some sun, although both Friday and Saturday have a shower chance at this point. A cooling trend is expected for Sunday before things turn decidedly warmer during the week of April 11th 📈
Though the blue chart above provides a simple snapshot of the week ahead, it doesn’t always tell the whole story. While three to five day forecasts are typically quite good, accuracy fades with time. One way to deal with forecast uncertainty is to look at possible scenarios. The plot below shows the most likely high temperature range for each day during the week ahead. The orange numbers indicate a high end “warm” outcome (70th percentile) while the green numbers indicate a low end “cool” outcome (20th percentile); the forecast median is colored black (50th percentile). It can be a useful way to visualize trends and forecast confidence over the coming week — days where the orange and green numbers are closer together (farther apart) equate to lower (higher) forecast spread, a gauge of confidence.
What fall looks like in New Zealand
On the other side of the world, we have been experiencing something akin to an endless summer in Auckland. Early April sun angles here are approximate to what the Hudson Valley would experience in mid-September. The temperature rose to a warm 77˚F on Saturday and Sunday, perfect for an evening stroll 🌴
After being closed to international tourists for over two years, New Zealand’s borders are set to open this month. I chatted with the Albany Times Union about the new New York - Auckland direct flight that will take to the skies later this year. The story is full of my local tips, from the top to the bottom of the country. Enjoy your Sunday reading and have a fantastic week 😎
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