Warmer for spring break 🌞

Update #493

Hi everyone!

For those who will enjoy a well-deserved break from school this coming week, Mother Nature will cooperate, mostly.

After a cool day today, a string of warmer days will coincide with the break - good timing, because the warmest temperature so far this month has been just 62 degrees 😱

It won’t be a totally dry week, but most of the rain looks brief and passing.

A ridge of high pressure will be overhead on Monday, though a few showers may approach the region late in the day or at night, lingering near the region on Tuesday morning.

After the potentially gloomy start, Tuesday will turn out just fine with a warmer, sunnier afternoon 🌡️

A warm front will be near the region on Wednesday, making the forecast a bit tricky at the moment. Should it lift north of the region, it will be quite a warm day with temperatures well into the 70s. If it lingers closer to the valley, clouds and scattered showers could keep the temperature down a bit.

Thursday will be dry to start. A warm, southerly flow ahead of a cold front could send temperatures well into the 70s — with 80 degrees not entirely out of the question if clouds and rain hold off. The front is forecast to move through during the second half of the day, with a period of rain or a thunderstorm possible ⚡

The plot below shows the most likely high temperature range for the week ahead. The orange numbers indicate a warm scenario (70th percentile) while the green numbers indicate a cool scenario (20th percentile); the forecast median is colored black (50th percentile). It can be a useful way to visualize trends and forecast confidence over the coming week — days where the orange and green numbers are closer together (farther apart) equate to higher (lower) forecast confidence.

See how the forecast spread is rather large for Wednesday (64 to 74˚F) and Thursday (71-80˚F)? That suggests there is moderate forecast uncertainty.

Behind the front, Friday will be quite nice overall but with a possibly gusty breeze.

🐣 The forecast for Easter weekend is a bit uncertain, but it looks a little cooler with a shower chance at this point, hopefully dry for the egg hunts 🤞

The week of the 18th looks to take a cooler turn in the Hudson Valley as the twists and turns of spring continue 🎢

Cooler than average temperatures (🔵) will likely return to the Hudson Valley next week

🌴 If you’re headed south for the week, the weather looks pretty nice and hot in Florida! Hopefully you’re not headed to the northern Rockies, Dakotas, or northern Minnesota — a late season blizzard will unfold from Tuesday-Thursday!

For those sticking around the Northeast and not headed to the beach, enjoy these shots from New Zealand’s Piha Beach, a volcanic black sand beach along the west coast of Auckland.

A shag enjoying the view and contemplating its next meal 🐟

Soak up the sun this week! ☀️