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Mostly tranquil, eyeing Ian
It’s taken a while, but the Atlantic tropics have finally come alive 🌀
On Friday night, Hurricane Fiona thrashed Nova Scotia and swept houses into the Atlantic Ocean in Newfoundland. Now, Tropical Storm Ian is intensifying in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane on Tuesday.
🍝 The exact track is uncertain, as shown by the spread of the spaghetti lines, or 50 possible storm tracks, below. The trend over the last day has been further west, away from South Florida and toward the central part of the state or panhandle.
The forecast will firm up over the next day or two, but in the meantime, anywhere from Naples to Pensacola is at-risk for a landfalling hurricane.
Intensity wise, there are serious concerns that this one will turn into major hurricane (category 3 or higher) due to extremely warm ocean water. This will cause significant wind, rain, and storm-surge related hazards for the sunshine state.
Ian’s remnants could move up the East Coast next weekend with a chance for some rain in the Hudson Valley. You can follow my hurricane tracking bot for the latest storm tracks.
⚡ In the meantime, the region has a thunderstorm risk this afternoon (Sunday), followed by a relatively benign weather week.
The pick days of the week look to be Thursday and Friday, with plenty of sunshine and comfortable afternoon temperatures. The mornings will be pretty cool!
While Monday-Wednesday won’t be “bad”, a slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring a chance for passing showers during the afternoons and evenings.
Fast-forwarding to the weekend, it will be about the remnants of Ian. I’d stress that the forecast is quite uncertain at this point with rainfall timing and amount — in other words, a washout is far from a guarantee!
As of now, the odds for rain increase later Saturday into Sunday.
If you have weekend plans, I suggest keeping an eye on the forecast over the next few days as it crystallizes.
Looking ahead to the week of October 3rd, Ian should be out of our hair and a general return to tranquility is favored.
No snow just yet 😉
Winter outlook - to be released on Saturday, October 22nd
With 67 days to go until the start of meteorological winter (December 1st), I’m busy assembling my Hudson Valley 2022-23 winter outlook!
Last year’s winter outlook remains my most popular post of all-time.
It’s bound to have something for everyone, from the weather nerds to the “just give me the bullet points” type of person 🙃
In the spirit of the fall-to-winter transition, here are a few photos from a moody day along the ribboned Rees River in New Zealand’s South Island, where many a Lord of the Rings scene was filmed.
A few weeks ago, I did a “soft launch” of my new premium subscription service.
Premium subscribers will have access to occasional special posts, such as about the winter outlook, and as we approach winter, insights about long-range snow threats.
My weekly weather updates, like this one, and snow day percentages will remain free — nothing will change in that regard!
The premium service is about bonus content. You can think of the premium plan like Netflix and the free one like basic cable!
There are two premium plans to choose from: a $50 plan that is billed annually and a $5 plan that is billed monthly. It’s very similar to any other subscription service that you can sign up for online 🙂
I just published a new premium story yesterday, “The butterfly effect of a volcano”, on how a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific Ocean could mess with the Hudson Valley’s winter.
Regardless of whether you choose “basic cable” or “Netflix”, I appreciate your ongoing support and interest. The countdown is on to winter and I’m here for it and you 💯