You could’ve mistaken the last two week’s worth of weather for late September.

With highs routinely flirting with or exceeding 70 degrees (77 on Saturday!), recent conditions have been akin to an Indian Summer. November has so far been more than 10 degrees above average in the Hudson Valley! 🌡️

The temperature at Poughkeepsie *only* dropped to 67 degrees on Saturday night. If it fails to dip below 62˚F before midnight, it will become the highest November minimum temperature on record.

🩳 Did you break out the shorts and t-shirts again? Flip-flops?! You might be able to get away with it for a day or two more this week.

🔮 My meteorological crystal ball says the end is near when it comes to the warmer than normal weather 📉

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Merch

Of the last 5 Novembers, 4 were cooler than normal in the Hudson Valley, as shown by the graph below. After a balmy start to the month, the region looks likely to pivot toward a cooler pattern starting on Sunday, November 13th.

November temperatures over the decades in the Hudson Valley. Blue (red) bars indicate cooler (warmer) than average months.

After more warmth on Monday, a distinct cooling trend is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will warm up again later in the week with some rain likely late Friday into Saturday before a cold front passes through and cools things off for Sunday.

A shower may pass through the region during the predawn hours on Monday, but the day itself will have abundant sunshine and rapidly lowering humidity levels.

The cooling and drying trend will continue on both Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong area of Canadian high pressure settles overhead. This will deliver prime conditions for radiational cooling on Tuesday night, with the temperature dipping into the 20s by Wednesday morning 🥶

Milder temperatures are expected on Thursday as the wind flow shifts to the southwest — probably the pick day of the week ⭐

Another warm day is expected on Friday, albeit with increased cloud cover.

Later Friday through early Saturday, a tropical storm (yes, you read that right) may move up the East Coast. For the Hudson Valley, it may combine forces with a cold front and bring a period of rain, possibly heavy.

The same, yet-to-be-named tropical system looks like it will impact parts of Florida with heavy rain and strong wind on Thursday, especially near the east coast. Chances are it won’t be the most intense, but may still pack a punch.

On Sunday, a sharply colder Canadian air mass will careen into the Hudson Valley with a stiff northwesterly wind — the sun will officially set on our warmer than average temperatures 🌅

This will likely kick start the lake effect snow machine near the Great Lakes, with a flurry not out of the realm of possibility for the Hudson Valley ❄️

The chilly conditions look set to continue into the week of November 14th. With the arrival of more seasonably cool weather, we’ll need to keep our guard up for wintry precipitation. I’m keeping half an eye on the November 16th - 17th time frame 👀

While I don’t see anything that strikes me as high risk just yet, we’re closing in on the November 23rd - December 16th window when the region typically experiences its first snowfall ❄️

Warmer than average conditions (🔴) will be replaced by widespread cold weather (🔵) next weekend

👋 Greetings from the West Pacific

This week I’m writing to you from the Philippines, where my wife Kate and I have had the pleasure of vacationing. This is my 3rd time visiting Kate’s homeland of over 7,000 islands. The sights, scenes, smells, sensations, and smiles all make it an authentic experience and provide another perspective on life from a developing country.

Although I’ve been here before, I’m always struck by the determination of locals who are doing their best to get by and having fun while doing it. Here are some of the things that make it memorable for me:

The people are incredibly welcoming, service-oriented, and always want to feed you!
Tropical fruits like mangoes (sweetest in the world), bananas, coconuts, papaya, pineapples are found in great abundance and come with every meal 🥭
Sweet Philippine mangoes are the best in the world
The warm, tropical waters are bliss to swim in, but the humidity is so thick that you could cut it with a knife! 🏝️
Helmet diving in the tropical waters!
The beautiful Boracay island 🌅
Filipino cuisine is tasty but you can’t expect to count carbs, calories, or sugar
Purple (ube) pancakes, anyone? 🥞
The burning: burning of garbage and other agricultural waste is common practice, resulting in poor air quality 😷
Basketball is life: every barangay (village) has a court! 🏀
The transport options: trisikad, jeepney, bangka — sound unfamiliar? Yep, cars are not the most common vehicle here! Getting around is an adventure.
Motorized tricycle
Bangka boat — native watercraft
The animals: so. many. strays. Many cute-looking cats that you can’t pet! 🐱
Thankfully he’s not a stray 😻
The traffic lights have a countdown til green (and red) 🚦
Traffic light countdown clock
The power lines: this one is really shocking 🙃
🤯

For more on how the weather in the West Pacific is connected to the Hudson Valley, check out my latest premium post below.

BenNollWeather

Greetings from the Western Pacific Warm Pool 🐠

Hi all! This week I’m writing to you from the Philippines, where my wife Kate and I have had the pleasure of vacationing. Although it’s nearly 9,000 miles away, the weather here can be linked back to the Hudson Valley. How can that be? Come take a dive with me into the Western Pacific Warm Pool! 🤿…

3 months ago · 8 likes · 7 comments · Ben Noll

Salamat (thanks) for reading and enjoy your week ✌️

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Merch

BenNollWeather

Warm now, but change on the horizon ⏳