Tranquil through turkey day 🦃

Update #524

Greetings all! Are you looking forward to having a few days off this week?

Although it will be cold and windy to start the week, dry weather is expected leading up to and on Thanksgiving, with a chance for some unsettled weather on Friday, possibly into Saturday.

And no, the lake effect snow storm that brought an astonishing 77 inches of snow to Orchard Park, New York (near Buffalo), will not be coming our way! That’s about twice what the mid Hudson Valley typically gets in an entire winter.

On Facebook, I was sent these remarkable photos taken by Maureen OBeirne of Hamburg, NY, where at least 74 inches of snow has fallen since Thursday. Hard to fathom.

Car is out there… somewhere! 🫣

Here in the Hudson Valley, it’s a different story. Yes, it’s cold, but we’re a long way from Lake Ontario and Erie, the moisture source for these lake effect snow bands.

🥶 Today (Sunday) and Monday look cold, sunny, and windy, with a moderating trend into the 40s for Tuesday-Tuesday.

Through Thursday, dry weather will be found across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, something for those hitting the road to be thankful for… and good for getting in some exercise before your big meal later in the week! 🍗 🍠 🥧

11/22 update: the forecast for Friday has trended better (toward less rain) while the forecast for Sunday has trended wetter. Saturday, sandwiched in between systems, looks dry

Here in New Zealand, Thanksgiving is not celebrated, but this American is hoping that the newly-opened Costco will stock pumpkin pie in the coming days 🤞 — it’s a rarity in this neck of the woods!

👀 I’ve got my eyes on Friday for some potentially unsettled weather. As of now, it’s not set in stone, but an incoming cold front could join forces with a coastal low pressure system. The timing of these two disturbances will dictate the weather that we experience.

There’s a chance that the timing is out-of-sync and we only get some passing rain, but there’s also a chance that the system drenches us with rain on Black Friday and even threatens to change to wet snow.

A day to watch if you have plans, which I’m sure many do.

11/22 update: the forecast for Friday has trended better (toward less rain) while the forecast for Sunday has trended wetter. Saturday, sandwiched in between systems, looks dry.

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The weekend forecast isn’t set in stone because of the uncertainties with the storm, but at this point it’s not looking too bad — windy with the chance for a passing shower on Saturday, dry on Sunday. Things could change if the timing of the storm changes.

🌡️ As we head back to school during the week of the 28th, it’s looking warmer than average to start thanks to an air mass from the Pacific Ocean.

It probably won’t last long, however, with a change to colder conditions possible right around the start of December 📉

This owes to a ridge of high pressure half way around the world in Scandinavia. A strong ridge there can be a precursor to colder conditions in the eastern U.S — as warm air pools over Greenland, it forces colder air farther south.

A strong ridge of high pressure (🔴) north of Scandinavia could lead to colder weather in the Hudson Valley in early December

✈️ Always choose the window seat

🌋 You’re looking at Taal Volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines.

When I flew from the central Philippines to Manila, on my way back to New Zealand, I was treated with this view — awesome for a geography and weather nerd like me!

The crater lake, where people used to swim (!), is looking pretty murky due to volcanic unrest in recent years.

Click to watch a video of my fly-over.

You might be able to spot Vulcan Point emerging from the crater lake. It has the distinction of being among the world’s largest islands in a lake on an island in a lake on an island 🤯

In 1991, Mt Pinatubo erupted just 90 miles to the north of Taal Volcano. Pinatubo injected 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, which led to global cooling in the years that followed.

Here are a few more photos from my flight…

The province of Romblon, Philippines

Calaton Point, Philippines

Fuego Point, Philippines

So that’s why I always pick the window seat!

😋 Please enjoy an extra piece of turkey and helping of mashed potatoes for me this week ~ Happy Thanksgiving!