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Thursday-Friday: coming into focus
It may be coming into focus, but be warned: with this storm, expect the unexpected!
⚙️ There are many moving parts — some places will be snowy, others rainy, and some both! This variability will matter especially if you live on one side of the valley and work on another, or live on a hill or mountaintop.
This is not the storm to be overconfident about. Mother Nature has the upper hand and we must respect that!
🧰 Fortunately, I have a belt of meteorological tools that I use to fine tune the forecast for the Hudson Valley.
As of early Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service had issued a Winter Storm Watch for Sullivan and western Ulster County. I think there is a good chance that advisories are raised for other parts of the region over the next 12-24 hours.
Heavy, wet snow across Orange (especially west), Ulster, and Sullivan County. Snow will mix with rain at times in Orange and eastern Ulster County on Thursday night and Friday morning.
A mix of snow and rain across Dutchess and Putnam County.
Mostly rain across Rockland and Westchester County.
Starting between 2:00 - 4:00 pm Thursday in Orange, western Ulster, and Sullivan — this is where early dismissals have the highest chance.
Starting between 4:00 pm - 6:00 pm Thursday in eastern Ulster, Dutchess, and Putnam.
By daybreak Friday, rain will likely be falling across most of the region, except in western Ulster and Sullivan.
6-9 inches in Sullivan and western Ulster.
3-6 inches in Orange (more west, less east) and eastern Ulster.
1-3 inches in Dutchess and Putnam, especially in higher elevations.
Less than an inch in Rockland and Westchester, mainly on grass.
The map below shows the likely distribution of snowfall across the Hudson Valley and Catskills. It provides the general idea of there being more snow to the west and across the higher elevations (green colors).
Slippery, snow-covered or slushy roads from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning in Orange (especially west), Ulster, and Sullivan, lasting longest in Sullivan and western Ulster.
Downed trees and power lines are possible in the Catskills ⚠️
The possibility for slushy roads on Thursday evening and night in Dutchess and Putnam, especially in higher elevations.
Wet roads likely in Rockland and Westchester.
Note: temperatures in the low 20s Thursday morning will result in sub-freezing pavement temperatures; even though air temperatures are expected to rise above freezing during the day on Thursday, ground temperatures may run colder, resulting in a chance for icy spots when rain or snow falls.
Thursday: a high chance for early dismissals in Sullivan, a medium to high chance in Orange, and a medium chance in Ulster. A medium to high chance for the cancellation of after school activities regionwide.
Friday: a medium to high chance for closings in western Ulster and Sullivan and a medium chance in Orange (especially west) and eastern Ulster. A medium to high chance for delays in Orange and eastern Ulster. A low to medium chance for delays in Dutchess and Putnam.
One thing is certain: the next 48-72 hours are bound to be interesting! Follow along on Twitter for school-by-school early dismissal percentages for Thursday — to be issued around 6:00 pm Wednesday.