Hello and happy Friday!

I almost don’t want to say it at the risk of jinxing it, but the “s” word has returned to the forecast.

Yes, snow! ❄️

I’ll keep this update brief and save the detail for my Sunday newsletter (partially because the details remain a bit elusive!), but the periods to focus on are Sunday night-Monday morning and Wednesday.

Sunday night-Monday morning (event 1)

• Forecasts have recently trended toward more rain than snow, timed from Sunday evening through Monday morning

• The farther north you are, the better your chance of snow — the best chances will be north of I-84

• School delays or closings are within the realm of possibility for parts of the region, but not all

The blue spaghetti-themed image below approximates where the rain/snow line will be at 1:00 am on Monday morning. The dark blue line is the “most likely” position, with the mid-Hudson Valley sitting to its south (in the rainy sector). The thin blue lines offer 50 possible scenarios. A vast majority of the lines are located north of I-84, suggestive of an event during which snow may be favored farther upstate…

Wednesday (event 2)

• Overall, Wednesday (event 2) looks more promising than event 1 — but being five days out, thing will change

• A period of (heavy?) accumulating snow could occur across much of the region, favoring the 2nd half of the day into the night

• Impacts could include school closings or early dismissals

The storm responsible for causing event 2 will be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night, which is when our forecast details for Wednesday should come into focus.

Have a great weekend and think snow 💭 ☃️