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Snow? Could it be?

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Snow? Could it be?

Update #532a

Ben Noll
Jan 20
9
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Snow? Could it be?

www.bennollsays.com

Hello and happy Friday!

I almost don’t want to say it at the risk of jinxing it, but the “s” word has returned to the forecast.

Yes, snow! ❄️

I’ll keep this update brief and save the detail for my Sunday newsletter (partially because the details remain a bit elusive!), but the periods to focus on are Sunday night-Monday morning and Wednesday.

Sunday night-Monday morning (event 1)

  • Forecasts have recently trended toward more rain than snow, timed from Sunday evening through Monday morning

  • The farther north you are, the better your chance of snow — the best chances will be north of I-84

  • School delays or closings are within the realm of possibility for parts of the region, but not all

The blue spaghetti-themed image below approximates where the rain/snow line will be at 1:00 am on Monday morning. The dark blue line is the “most likely” position, with the mid-Hudson Valley sitting to its south (in the rainy sector). The thin blue lines offer 50 possible scenarios. A vast majority of the lines are located north of I-84, suggestive of an event during which snow may be favored farther upstate…

The dark blue line is the most likely position of the rain/snow line late Sunday night

Wednesday (event 2)

  • Overall, Wednesday (event 2) looks more promising than event 1 — but being five days out, thing will change

  • A period of (heavy?) accumulating snow could occur across much of the region, favoring the 2nd half of the day into the night

  • Impacts could include school closings or early dismissals

The storm responsible for causing event 2 will be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night, which is when our forecast details for Wednesday should come into focus.

Have a great weekend and think snow 💭 ☃️

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Snow? Could it be?

www.bennollsays.com
2 Comments
Marlene
Jan 20

NO SNOW PLEase have to travel SOUTH THURSDAY!!!!

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Donna Mahoney
Jan 20

Yes, please ❄️

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