Snow likely, but worst of nor'easter probably passes east

Update #539c

Will it snow on Monday-Tuesday?

Yup, almost certainly.

Will it snow heavily?

Probably at some point Monday night and/or Tuesday.

Will the Hudson Valley be at the epicenter of the nor’easter?

I’m leaning toward no.

Is the forecast set in stone?

Absolutely not!

I wanted to start this post with some hard-hitting questions and key messages as of early Saturday, but read on for some more detail.

Experience says forecasting snow is tricky in any month — but March and April take the cake. A lot has to go “right” to get a big snowfall and just a little has to go wrong for it to bust.

We do have one important ingredient needed for a big March snowfall: a strong, coastal low pressure system known as a “nor’easter”.

The animation below shows its forecast track from Monday-Wednesday, with the purple colors marking the most intense part of the storm.

Compared to how it looked a day ago, it’s a little farther east. The farther east it goes, the farther the Hudson Valley is from the storm’s intense, inner snow bands. Snow can and will fall along its periphery, away from the center, but not as much.

Rough timeline

• A mix of rain and wet snow on Monday with little or no accumulation until late

• Full school days are most likely on Monday, but early dismissals can’t be ruled out

• Becomes all snow Monday night, continuing into Tuesday with a moderate accumulation most likely and a heavy accumulation less likely

• Depending on the accumulation, school closings and/or delays are possible on Tuesday

• Tapers to flurries late Tuesday

The image below shows the percentage chance of at least six inches of snow on Monday night and Tuesday. For most valley areas, the chance is 40-60% — lower to the south, higher to the north. The highest chances (>60%) are found in the northern Catskills, western Connecticut, and Massachusetts.

As you can see, the snow “hotspot” is sitting north of our region at this point. That could change, but the details with this storm are becoming clearer.

All things held equal, an eastward track adjustment would mean less snow, while a westward adjustment would mean more…

Next update: Sunday morning.