Storm probably misses
Update #690d: Weekend snow chances are diminishing in the Hudson Valley.
For those that have followed along this week, it’s looking like ‘scenario 1’ will probably end up as the winner!
That scenario was called “A miss to the east.” Congrats to those hoping for no snow.
So where will it snow? In the obvious snow capital of the East Coast: the Carolinas!
After burying the Carolinas and parts of eastern Georgia from Saturday into Sunday, the rapidly strengthening storm will pass offshore. Its snow will stretch into New England, with blizzard conditions possible in Cape Cod, and its western fringe could graze New York City and/or Long Island on Sunday.
Heck, even Florida might get snow from this system! Check this out:
Unless there’s a late shift in the storm track that affects the Hudson Valley, this will be my final update for this almost-event.
My next update will arrive on Sunday morning ✌️
The scenario tracking across updates is helpful for understanding model confidence vs uncertainty - following along made it clear why 'miss to the east' was always a real possibility even when the headlines focused on the potential hit. The Florida snow angle is interesting too - coastal nor'easters bending south enough to affect the Gulf states happens maybe once a decade? The framing around 'congrats to those hoping for no snow' acknowledges the split in how ppl view these forecasts, which is more honest than treating all storms as purely threats.