Hudson Valley graduation-cast

Update #710a: Will your school’s graduation be outside this year?

Whether or not graduation will be outside feels like the second most important weather question I get all year.

Second only to: Will there be a snow day tomorrow?

So, will your school’s graduation be outside this year? Or will a renegade thunderstorm threat force it indoors?

Well, if your graduation happens to be on Wednesday, you’re in luck. Because there’s a 100 percent chance that the weather will cooperate for outdoor graduations.

A slam dunk forecast.

But as we head toward the weekend, the forecast becomes less of a slam dunk and more of a three-point shot. Let’s break it down.

Thursday

Graduation in the morning? Great. It’s looking dry. But during the afternoon, scattered showers may start to pop up across the region. The steadiest stuff will probably hold off until nighttime, though.

I’d peg the outdoor graduation chances at 70 to 80 percent.

Friday

It’s looking like steady rain should depart early Friday morning, setting the region up for a mostly dry day. Given the humid, sticky air, I can’t rule out a passing shower at any time — but I think that would be the exception, not the rule.

It’s looking like an 80 to 90 percent chance for outdoor graduations.

Saturday

Saturday’s forecast is tricky.

A rain band could graze the region or pass by to the south.

If it grazes the region, that could unfortunately spell indoor graduations.

Outdoor graduations have about a 50/50 chance at this point.

Stay tuned!

Sunday

Sunday is looking pretty good at this point. The day should start dry with a good amount of sunshine.

There might be some isolated showers during the afternoon, but probably not enough to derail outdoor graduations.

I’d give outdoor graduations an 80 to 90 percent chance.