Change on the horizon 🌧️

Update #470

Hi there!

In case you missed it, I released my 2021-22 Hudson Valley winter outlook yesterday.

Here are 5 key messages that you might be interested in:

• Something in the ballpark of last winter is probably a good starting place for the upcoming winter…

• An elevated chance (80%) for either normal or above normal seasonal snowfall; a 20% chance for below normal snowfall

• January, February, and possibly March are looking like the busiest months. There’s a 50-50 chance for some accumulating snow in November and a 60% chance for at least 10 inches in December ☃️

• It’s not looking like the coldest winter ever, but it can still snow even if temperatures aren’t colder than average

• A normal to above normal amount of weather-related school impacts are predicted

You can use promo code “winter2122” for 20% off (valid until October 31st)! 🎁

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The upcoming week to ten days will come with a transition — a transition away from what has been a warm, tranquil October, to more seasonable, unsettled, and eventually chillier weather.

Two rain storms headline the forecast: one from Monday night into Tuesday and another on Saturday, the former likely being heavier.

The temperature could reach 70 degrees on Monday for the last time this year. The last 70+ degree day in 2020 came on November 10th, but I’m not sure we’ll be as lucky this time around.

On Monday night, a heavy band of rain will swing across the region as the season’s first nor’easter winds up offshore. Upwards of 2 inches of rain will be possible, erasing the rainfall deficit that has built up this month. Given the intensity of the rain, urban flooding of low-lying areas can’t be ruled out 🌊

Simulated radar, 2:00 am Tuesday

Tuesday’s forecast is challenging — the Hudson Valley *could* end up in a dry slot as moisture pinwheels around the coastal low offshore, or not. Plan for a chance of rain.

The system will slowly move away on Wednesday, though a few leftover showers will probably be around during the morning.

🌤️ Thursday looks like the pick weather day of the week; take advantage of it because it won’t last!

Clouds will increase on Friday ahead of the next rain maker, which looks to arrive later in the day or at night. Wet weather looks likely for at least part of the day on Saturday.

🎃 The early indication is that the unsettled conditions will clear away in time for trick-or-treaters on Sunday evening 🤞

Looking further ahead, a trend toward chillier weather is likely for the first half of November. The first surge of colder temperatures could arrive on the 2nd or 3rd of November.

It’s a pattern where the odds of unusual weather are elevated, such as an abrupt start to winter 🌨️ Stay tuned!

Colder than average temperatures during November could spell an early start to winter

As seen in New Zealand: while I was out on a run this past week, out of the corner of my eye I spotted something particularly colorful. It turned out to be an eastern rosella, a parakeet native to Australia. This can’t miss bird has found a home in New Zealand’s North Island. Prior to this I had only heard about them as they’re unusual to spot in the city 🦜

Fly high this week!