Discover more from BenNollWeather
🔜 Turning a wintry corner ⏳
We might just make it through another week without measurable snow, but I think our snow-free days are numbered ⏳
If you read my post about a unique weather pattern unfolding in the Northern Hemisphere, you’d know why!
A major ridge of high pressure is building near Greenland. This pattern, called the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, last occurred in December 2010 and has happened only 11 times since 1950.
During those historical events, it tended to be colder and snowier than normal in the Hudson Valley during December and January.
Do you remember any of these years? Now we wait to see if history will be a useful guide!
The pattern’s influence on our weather will set in during the week of the 12th and could last through the holidays and into 2023.
Until then, we’ll have some reasonably mild but unsettled weather, mixed in with a few (slight) chances for wintry conditions.
Today (Sunday) and tomorrow will be good weather days. Things will change starting Monday night.
➡️ During the early hours of Tuesday morning, moisture will streak into the region from the south. There is a slight chance that this moisture could run into sub-freezing temperatures in Sullivan, Ulster, and Orange County, resulting in a period of freezing drizzle. For now, it’s just a wait, watch, and see. I’ll be keeping an eye on the radar on Monday night and you can follow along on Twitter to see my commentary (if needed).
Temperatures will gradually rise through the 40s on Tuesday with precipitation falling as plain rain. The wet weather will continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the temperature continues to rise 📈
The rain will ease up on Wednesday, giving way to quite a mild day with limited sun.
Cooler conditions will filter in for Thursday with the likely return of some sun.
❓🌨️ Looking ahead to Friday, a new storm over the central states will probably push eastward, passing south of the Hudson Valley. There is uncertainty as to what will happen, but the possibilities range from nothing if the storm is far enough south to snow if it’s closer. I’ll be keeping an eye on this through the week and will provide an update if necessary.
At this point, Saturday looks cool and dry.
While Sunday could also turn out dry, a stormier pattern looks to brew between late Sunday into the week of December 12th ❄️
Early indications are that the week of December 19th could also be busy.
The past week in New Zealand
I’ve been busy this past week! A team I am leading launched New Zealand’s first drought dashboard. It combines atmospheric science with machine learning to provide a prediction of dryness and drought 35 days into the future. This one-of-a-kind tool gives farmers, growers, event planners, economists, and everyday New Zealanders the ability to see how the weather might play out 5 weeks into the future.
It’s much different from a typical weather app where daily details are a fixture. Instead, this tool focuses on week-to-week themes and trends.
I had the opportunity to unveil it at something called Fieldays, the Southern Hemisphere's largest agricultural event and the ultimate launch platform for cutting edge technology and innovation.
It was really rewarding to bring something I dreamt up in 2020 to life with such positive feedback.
Click the link if you’d like to have a look: https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/
But you can’t achieve awesome stuff without an awesome team.
On the way back from the event, the sunset along New Zealand’s longest river, called the Waikato, was too good not to stop for! I loved the reflection of the clouds in the water below ☁️
The recent abundance of rain means that the drought tool won’t be immediately put to the test, but just like it’s only a matter of time until it snows in the Hudson Valley, it’s only a matter of time until it dries up here! ☀️
Hope your week flows smoothly ✌️