Hello and happy Friday!

I almost don’t want to say it at the risk of jinxing it, but the “s” word has returned to the forecast.

Yes, snow! ❄️

I’ll keep this update brief and save the detail for my Sunday newsletter (partially because the details remain a bit elusive!), but the periods to focus on are Sunday night-Monday morning and Wednesday.

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Sunday night-Monday morning (event 1)

Forecasts have recently trended toward more rain than snow, timed from Sunday evening through Monday morning
The farther north you are, the better your chance of snow — the best chances will be north of I-84
School delays or closings are within the realm of possibility for parts of the region, but not all

The blue spaghetti-themed image below approximates where the rain/snow line will be at 1:00 am on Monday morning. The dark blue line is the “most likely” position, with the mid-Hudson Valley sitting to its south (in the rainy sector). The thin blue lines offer 50 possible scenarios. A vast majority of the lines are located north of I-84, suggestive of an event during which snow may be favored farther upstate…

The dark blue line is the most likely position of the rain/snow line late Sunday night

Wednesday (event 2)

Overall, Wednesday (event 2) looks more promising than event 1 — but being five days out, thing will change
A period of (heavy?) accumulating snow could occur across much of the region, favoring the 2nd half of the day into the night
Impacts could include school closings or early dismissals

The storm responsible for causing event 2 will be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night, which is when our forecast details for Wednesday should come into focus.

Have a great weekend and think snow 💭 ☃️

BenNollWeather

Snow? Could it be?