❄️ A little snow, then a lot of sun ☀️
Update #579
👋 Hi there! The week ahead will open with unsettled weather before a lengthy period of tranquility sets in. Sunshine is not typically synonymous with “December”, but I doubt you’ll complain!
The weather from Sunday night (tonight) into Monday morning will be interesting — a cold front will cross the region, initially bringing soaking rainfall before transitioning to a bit of wet snow at the tail end. For the Catskills, the snow will likely amount to more than just “a bit”.
You may be confused as to what season it is when it reaches the upper 50s for a time late this afternoon into the evening 🤷♂️
By daybreak Monday, the temperature will have dropped into the upper 30s and rain will be changing to snow.
In addition to the information below, you can follow along at BenNollWeather on X for the latest information.
What? Heavy rain and a possible thunderstorm, changing to wet snow.
When? Sunday night into Monday morning; changeover to snow between 5:00-8:00 am Monday, from west to east, ending by midday.
How much? For the Catskills, 2-4 inches of wet snow are possible with slippery conditions coinciding with the morning commute, particularly in the western part of the county. In the Hudson Valley, a coating up to an inch may occur, mainly on grass, favored in hilly, elevated areas. Warm temperatures on Sunday will translate to warm pavement temperatures, reducing the chance for roadway accumulation. Air temperatures will also remain above freezing on Monday morning when snow is falling.
Impact? For Sullivan County and western Ulster County, there is a medium-to-high chance for school delays with the potential for closings where snow persists the longest and accumulates on roads. Road conditions will vary significantly with elevation, but expect snow-covered and slippery areas along and off of Route 17. Pockets of slick conditions may also be found in elevated parts of far western and eastern Orange County, along Route 52 in southwestern Ulster County near Minnewaska, and along the Taconic State Parkway in northern Dutchess County.
For the remainder of the mid-Hudson Valley, school delays have around a low (30%) chance of occurring, though motorists should be mindful of a period of reduced visibility coinciding with the morning commute.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Sullivan County from 10:00 pm Sunday - 1:00 pm Monday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for western Ulster County from 7:00 pm Sunday - 7:00 pm.
Confidence? The main question surrounds the level of accumulation on roads. Warm temperatures today and above freezing temperatures on Monday morning during snow will likely reduce the overall impact.
Based on all of this, the snow day gauge has been nudged to a 2-out-of-10.
The rest of the week, while breezy at times, will feature a good deal of sunshine — pretty unusual for mid-December! 😎
A stronger cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, making Thursday the chilliest day of the week.
Monday: morning snow, then clearing and windy. With gusts of 30-40 mph, you may wish to bring unsecured Christmas decorations indoors 🌬️
Tuesday: mostly sunny, a breeze ☀️
Wednesday: plenty of sun, breezy, a touch cooler than Tuesday
Thursday: a good deal of sunshine, but chilly 🌞 🥶
Friday: turning much milder, remaining mostly sunny 📈
Saturday-Sunday: probably remaining dry and on the milder side, watching a possible coastal storm late Sunday or early in the following week
The weather during the week of December 18th looks generally similar to this week — an early week front, then turning more settled, and a lack of frigid air.
Where’s the snow, you ask? 🤔
I covered this question and much more in my latest premium post:
🎱 Magic 8 ball says: patience please! 🔮 ❄️
Some people look forward to Thanksgiving, Christmas, or a birthday, but for meteorologists and climate scientists, the 10th of every month is a holiday 🎁 Since late 2019, it has marked the day on which a coordinated “data dump” from the world’s top meteorological centers occurs — the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Japan all contribute.
During mid-to-late December, a strong Pacific jet stream will focus stormy weather along the U.S. West Coast and transport plenty of mild air into the country from the Pacific Ocean.
This will reduce the Hudson Valley’s odds for a white Christmas (grinch emoji).
If you’re looking for some last minute stocking stuffers, check out my merch shop. Promo code “snowday” for 20% off — order now to get it before Christmas! 🎅
Enjoy the sun this week ✌️
Hi Ben. Just letting you know that here in Saugerties we had over 4" of rain, the barometer reads 28.88 and my neighbors and I are floating. Is this what global waring will look like? Oops almost forgot to write that the temp. is 60 degrees and some of my bushes are starting to bud.
Frankly, I am worried. Paul